Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 13 luglio 2011

Market Comment - July 13

(Marco Bonelli) So what's the preferable scenario: continued slow domestic growth and growth risk abroad combined with QE3 (because it's defined to be necessary) or the possibility of an economic rebound in 2H11 and a booming Chinese economy but no QE3 (because it's declared to be not needed)?

As an investor I would probably go for the first scenario! No matter how unsympathetic current comments about a possible QE3 are at the moment, if it were to be announced and implemented, the liquidity effect on markets would be - once again - enormous. But let's talk about something else, because we are not there yet and at least today, the second scenario dominates as China's National Bureau of Statistics reported 9.5% GDP for Q2, 15.1% industrial production and 17.7% retail sales for June, all better than expected (doesn't it read sweet, 3Q10: 9.6% GDP growth, 4Q10: 9.8%, 1Q11: 9.7%, 2Q11: 9.5%?).

It looks like investors are desperate for reasons to push the market higher or at least keep it from falling further (again).
First there were the rumors yesterday morning that the ECB and China will step into the Italy's bond auction as white knights. Then in the afternoon, some statements from the Fed Minutes that hinted towards the "possibility of additional monetary policy accommodation if needed" were immediately interpreted that QE3 at least gets discussed.

As usual, these rumors or interpretations were not the reason why the market recovered intra-day, it was just the trigger to hit the buy-button which mostly initiated short-covering in a sort of sluggish but resilient tape. Following the turbulent morning session in Europe and a similar pre-market trading in the US, the major indexes managed to hold relatively well which was probably also the result of very negative intra-day readings from some indicators on Monday, notably the up/down volume ratio and the advance/decline ratio. Absent any extremely negative new news the markets generally tend to rebound a bit after hitting extreme intraday levels like we have seen beginning of the week. In addition, several earnings and revenue warnings (particularly in the technology sector) were primarily singled out and tied to the related sector (SOX index down 2.89%, closing just 8 points above the lows from June) while ignoring any broader implications for the overall market.

Obviously short-covering alone didn't save the day and all major indexes closed at the low of the day, slightly above their 50day and 100day MA, while the SPX even closed a couple of points below the mentioned averages. Nevertheless, the positive economic reports from China clearly lift the newly restrained mood. A lack of bad news out of Europe supports the Euro and hurts the Dollar. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver the semi-annual monetary policy report to the House of Representatives (hopefully by now, he has a "clearer read" on why economic growth is weaker than anticipated). In addition, two other Fed Governors will speak about the economy and it is expected that all three speeches we hear today will embrace a rebound in economic growth later this year. Let's see if any of these remarks reiterate the statement from the Fed's Minutes yesterday in regard of additional accommodation.

Overall, quite a few things on the schedule but very little new news to deal with, therefore, let's prepare for an uneventful session, again mixed with some intra-day volatility while investors desperately wait for some good news from major earnings reports to get released in the days to come.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

1 commento:

  1. Le buone news per gli investitori sono almeno 2: Cisco ne manda 5.000 a casa e soprattutto la stamperia riapre.


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