Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 19 luglio 2011

Market Comment - July 19

(Marco Bonelli) Do earnings really matter right now?

If they don't, that might explain the lack of conviction and lack of buying these days. Earnings have been discussed extensively in the two weeks prior to the Q2 earnings season and the messages have been clear, reflecting a strong consensus:


§  Earnings in general will be strong; the Q2 earnings season will be good

§  AA earnings will be good (they have a track record of beating)

§  Earnings in the bank sector will be horrible

§  INTC earnings will be bad (many warnings from smaller companies already point towards it)

§  IBM earnings will be good (software and service revenues will be strong and they are able to manage the bottom-line very well)

§  AAPL will crush the numbers

§  ...the list goes on and on...

Getting back to the sluggish trading: The market picture changed quite a bit and although the averages recovered from the lows of the day in the afternoon the picture didn't improve too much. Furthermore all major indexes fell back to and dance around their 50day and 100day MAs, once again: The Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed slightly above, while the SPX, the Russell 2000 and the S&P400 Midcap Index closed below.


§  The down-volume picked up considerably in the first half of trading, while the up-volume was almost non-existent over most of the day (remember, so far there was very little selling pressure in this current pull-back).

§  The advance/decline-ratio continues to deteriorate and closed again at extreme negative levels (which often gets reversed the next day, however)

§  Cyclical sectors that held up nicely during the decline in May and June and outperformed or broke out to new highs during the market rally end of June/ beginning of July, sold off sharply and under-performed in the recent pull-back. Railroads/ trucking, air-transport, airlines (this is also reflected in the performance if the Dow Jones Transportation Index) and defense. These and a few other sectors fell back to their 200day MA or in some cases even broke them.

So the market didn't react to better than expected earnings in the banking sector. It didn't react to strong results from GOOG. Even this morning the reaction to strong earnings from IBM last night appears fairly muted, at least index futures aren't going through the roof. Disappointing results from GS even seem to offset all better than anticipated results from most banks that reported end of last week and this morning.

What the market definitely doesn't like is uncertainty: Unresolved issues with the European sovereign debt crisis, the US budget discussion and probably most importantly, the economic outlook. June Housing Starts and Permits that just got reported better than expected could dissolve some uncertainty around the economic outlook and which could also spill over to the earnings front. So will investors appreciate earnings more after the housing starts than they did before? The futures move higher, let's watch if follow-through buying kicks in this time.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento

Per commentare é necessario un indirizzo email "@gmail.com". Se non ce l'hai puoi farlo qui, oppure iscrivendoti al vlog. Altrimenti puoi usare una delle altre opzioni disponibili nel menù "Commenta come".