Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 19 agosto 2011

Market Comment - August 19

(Marco Bonelli) Is there anything else you need to know than this? ...
--- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) taps the Fed's foreign exchange swap line to the tune of $200M. It's the largest draw since October 2008 and the first since March of this year. The facility was setup to help alleviate short term European funding market strains. The Swiss move comes on top of yesterday's news one bank in Europe had tapped the ECB's loan window for $500M.---


Let's get the trading part out first:

As 65% of total volume comes from high-frequency trading, the market unfortunately remains unpredictable. Many players talked about testing the recent lows, so getting the markets to the July lows and defending these levels will be a very psychologically driven events! 1100 in the SPX is obviously one of these key levels. Once we get close to the July lows, at some point, a nice short-covering rally will kick in which will make the market picture look even good again. The most unexpected event would be, if the market slices through and closes below the July lows without any resistance. The German DAX Index already showed this morning how it works. Anyway, August options expire today, HF trading dominates and short-covering could kick in at any time, the closer we get to the July lows, the more likely. How long that rebound will last and if investors feel more comfortable in the second attempt to rally, remains a different question.

Before we go into the weekend, here are a few more thoughts:


§  Despite all the talk that a mild recession, a 15% reduction in earnings or everything else is already reflected in current stock prices, as long as the fundamental scenario is moving and it's unclear how the picture looks in a few months from now or next year (not mentioning that the picture today is also anything but clear), it's not in the prices, unless the market talks a doomsday scenario like it did in 2008 and 2009. For instance market players just recently started talking about the phenomenon of contagion, within Europe and globally.


§  Bond yields continue to collapse. Historically, the bond market senses and forecasts the macro-economic scenario better than the stock market. Bond yield across all maturities peaked in February this year and seriously started declining since April which - among other factors - already reflected serious concerns about the macro-economic environment. The drop in yield along with a flattening of the yield curve simply shows - among other factors - that these concerns became even more serious. A look at the most recent economic numbers from August more than expose that.


§  Another notable cyclical indicator is the Dow Jones Transportation Index that already closed at a new low in that correction yesterday. The index hit a new all-time-high six weeks ago on July 7, 2011 at 5627.85. Since then, the index dropped 23.6%, closed only 289.03 points (or 6.7%) away from its 52-week low and is down 15.81% year-to-date. All this in six weeks is quite remarkable and telling.


§  Recession or not, the past few weeks just intensified an already existing crisis of confidence - everybody, corporations and individuals, who say that they haven't seen any changes in trends or behavior in their environment probably operate and live on a different planet.


§  When will QE3 be announced? Will the latest slightly disappointing inflation data have any impact on how the Fed decides in regard of a more accommodative monetary policy? We may find out at Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech next week on August 26 but chances are that the Fed prefers to monitor the situation a bit longer until it get forced to inject more liquidity.



Trade well and have a nice summer weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)


1 commento:

  1. Salve, le chiederei un'opinione a caldo.. Alcuni dei titoli da lei consigliati l'estate scorsa (Gamestop, Dollar Financial, General Cable) hanno poi avuto performance spettacolari in corso d'anno e ad oggi sono tornati a prezzi interessanti. Ritiene che vadano nuovamente considerati occasioni d'acquisto o che sia meglio attendere ulteriori sviluppi?

    Spero che prima o poi riprendiate a trattare nei vostri video l'analisi di titoli USA che ho apprezzato moltissimo.

    Spero che trovi il tempo di rispondermi e la ringrazio in anticipo per la professionalità e la competenza messe a disposizione qui su Vloganza.

    RispondiElimina

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