Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 24 agosto 2011

Market Comment - August 24

(Marco Bonelli) Technology was the winner, lifting the Nasdaq up more than 4%, so how about we add another 2 ½ % and close the gap from a few days ago? These levels would be 2511.50 in the Nasdaq Composite and 2159 in the NDX!

After another round of weak economic numbers (New Home Sales from July and Richmond Fed Index from August), increased hopes for an actionable announcement by Ben Bernanke on Friday were mentioned as the prime driver for the powerful and successful Rebound Version 3.0. It may have contributed but it was probably not the main driver.

How about sentiment? Partly carefully, partly enthusiastically watching a double-bottom formation in the major indexes, investors got badly disappointed on Monday, so there was not too much excitement going into yesterday's session, in fact a lot of comments continued to be quite negative, or let's express it differently: the positive comments were not really existent anymore. With that the base for a gradual rebound (opposite to the 200+ points opening of the Dow Jones on Monday) was set. Despite the intra-day reversal from Monday, the double-bottom option was still alive and realistic. While the technology sector was a big underperformer for some time and also appeared on the worst performer list the last two trading days, a lot of blue-chip stocks dropped to attractive, or let's say interesting levels: the list goes from IBM, GOOG to MSFT, DELL, VMW, AMZN and also includes INTC, BRCM and EBAY. Buying in these names pushed many sub-sector indexes in the space that already broke the lows from early August back into the double-dip territory.

The rest is basically text-book. Stocks move higher and money comes out of safe-plays like bonds and gold and immediately the discussion about a bottom of the correction, rally targets, which sectors and stocks to buy and how much negative is already discounted in current prices gets rejuvenated. On the flip-side, all problems and concerns quickly move to the background, even if CDS prices and spreads in Europe and the US don't suggest a long break from the concerns and July's durable goods orders only looked nice on the surface but peeking under the carpet, weak orders in almost all industry categories send a strong reminder that the macro-economic issues will stay with us for a while.

All said, the rally yesterday was good and as long as skepticism exists, prices could move higher. Traders will clearly keep a close eye on the mentioned levels in the Nasdaq, so there is a good chance the gaps will be closed by Friday and then the cards get reshuffled. Nasdaq Composite, 2511.50 and NDX, 2159 - here we come!

Trade well

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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