Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 26 agosto 2011

Market Comment - August 26

(Marco Bonelli) Is it possible that the Jackson-Hole triggered sell-off already happened yesterday because Ben Bernanke's facial hair trimming is more interesting than the speech he will give at 10.00am?

With the majority of expectations supporting no QE3 announcement and at best a more aggressive version of the FOMC statement, maybe the Fed Chairman will announce something, who knows (how about a light version of QE3, divided in several time slots?).

Anyway, Warren Buffet's investment in BAC probably raised more questions on the second look than it helped to calm down investors concerns. Was BAC in urgent need of capital or not? Is this a "too-big-to-fail"-speculation as Warren Buffet knows that even if BAC is in trouble, the Fed will likely not let BAC go down the drain?

This event probably reinforced general profit taking after a 4% (Dow Jones) to 6.9% (Russell 2000) advance in two trading days. The second implication of the BAC news was a reminder of "new news" versus "old news". While stock prices likely discounted a lot of "old" news so far, any "new" news puts more pressure on the market: Is BAC in deeper trouble than investors think? Are European banks in deeper trouble as investors think (yesterday the ECB tapped the Fed's swap line with $500Mln, the second use of the swap line in less than two weeks after the SNB started using the line last week)? Which effect has the extension of the short-selling ban in France, Italy and Spain (common sense and history shows that interference with free markets doesn't work!)? Is the Greek budget and debt crisis now temporarily solved or will the ongoing debate about individual collateral derail the whole rescue package?

All these questions point to the existing uncertainties and the normal reaction is to take out risk and sell. However, "old" news like a revised down Q2 GDP or another revenue warning from a technology or consumer company probably doesn't cause any major reaction.

The BAC news definitely helped financials to outperform the broader market. The sector was already among the best performing groups on Tuesday. Overall, relative strength in financials is good. The strong opening yesterday also pushed the Nasdaq within a few points to close the still open gap from last week and dropped from there. While the general chart picture doesn't really suggest a bullish message, yesterday's profit-taking only erased less than half of the gains from earlier this week and the double-bottom formation could still successfully develop. Sentiment clearly supports that statement. Based on that, I wouldn't be surprised if the reaction to Jackson Hole is different (in other words: more positive) than the majority of market participants expect!

The rest is up to Ben Bernanke's facial hair trimming and Irene!

Trade well and have a nice and safe weekend.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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