Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 6 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 6

(Marco Bonelli) Another symbolic move: The major indexes fell back into the range, the trading range, the range between slow economic growth and recession, the range between hope and frustrating uncertainty and the range between positive and negative. The only twist is that the top of the current trading range doesn't represent the best of all worlds and the bottom doesn't represent the worst. Welcome to the first full (holiday-reduced) trading week in September, historically the worst month in terms of performance but important due to back-to-school, mutual-fund portfolio year-end restructuring and market players returning from vacation.

In terms of the question where the economy and where the market stands, Friday's dismal labor report tells the story. While some optimism was fabricated last week after a couple of better data for July (that didn't catch the latest developments, yet) and the Chicago PMI or Manufacturing ISM Index for August (that was in fact quite weak, only better than expected, but at the end it's a sentiment driven survey), the zero payroll change, revisions to the prior two months for a total of 58k and falling hourly earnings is a fact and not a sentiment figure or a survey! Another fact is the weekly rail-data, which shows that the growth in car-load traffic dipped into negative last week, the first time since January 2007. Although the question whether the US economy is already in or will slide into a recession is not answered yet, the facts show a miserable state of the economy.

Almost all action confirms that the market didn't hit a bottom on August 9thy and we won't see a V- or W-shaped rebound from there but that the market at best entered a bottom-building process: The Nasdaq is going crazy with opening and closing gaps, all major indexes classically failed at the BOLLinger band middle-line, financials, industrials and technology flip-flop between rally- and sell-off leader, just to name a few.

Beside that uncertainties in Europe enter a new level (demonstrated by and maybe even enforced by government votes on austerity measures, court rulings, ECB meeting and labor strikes), bond-yields in the US continue to hit new record lows and we haven't even talked about the earnings picture. Over the next weeks, the discussion about Q3 earnings will come up, an event where analysts still expect almost 15% growth (after 17.5% in Q2) and we will find out if the many revenue warnings we saw following Q2 earnings reports will be enough or if there is more to come, joined by downward revisions for earnings.

With little economic numbers to be reported this week, the market will go with the flow and if the flow is deteriorating developments in Europe, then the question comes up, how long the lows from August 9 will pose as technical support-line before it turns into a technical resistance.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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