Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 21 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 21

(Marco Bonelli) "The Fed is expected to take new action to lift economy."


This headline itself already suggests that it will be a difficult mission for the Fed to make the FOMC statement sound convincingly positive. The market expects something, the Fed is under enormous pressure but is running out of options and everything but the economic models indicate that "Operation Twist" won't lift the economy, because if the economy doesn't react at 1.94% interest rate for the 10year duration, it won't react at 1.5% or 1.6% either. But as Ben Bernanke lives more in the computer model world than in the real one, he will proudly pull this out of his tool-box and present it to the world.

It seemed that the sort of fake and artificial rally from last week is running out of steam and the classic intraday reversal yesterday was the latest evidence. It looks like investors come to sense that a positive comment after a conference call about "How to inject life into the dead Greek economy" or the S&P downgrade of Italian debt is not necessarily something to get excited about. "Operation Twist" - if it gets announced - will also fall into that category.

In the meantime, corporations continue to give contradicting statements as a lot of companies acknowledge the difficult macro-economic environment that makes it almost impossible to come up with any predictions but at the same time they insist that their company is in the best shape and business is doing great. At least sell-side earnings estimates continue to get revised down gradually after economists already revised GDP estimates sharply down a while ago and market strategists recently lowered their year-end targets for the SPX. Q3 earnings will increasingly become a dominating topic the closer we get to the beginning of the Q3 reporting season.

Looking at news, data and comments from the macro and micro-economic side, it's hard to tell if the market is in a make-believe state or if all the bad news is really already discounted. No matter what, it is highly likely that the economy entered a different stage after the initial recovery out of the recession, which is one of the main reasons why the market has difficulty breaking back into the 2 ½ year uptrend and why the market will likely pull back, once again - a disappointing FOMC statement today could easily be the trigger for a continuation of yesterday's late sell-off.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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