Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

lunedì 12 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 12

(Marco Bonelli) What's the combination of Greece, a combination of stupid ignorance and paralysis among the politicians and other leaders in regard of the European debt crisis, an explosion at a French nuclear plant and reduction of growth estimates on the macro and micro level?

...the first attempt of the major US indexes to break the lows from August!

The situation in Europe appears more and more like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yields, spreads, CDS levels, reduction in GDP forecasts, strikes, further reduction in GDP forecasts and a long two weeks ahead of us until Greece is scheduled to make another payment on their debt and an "independent" Eurozone / IMF commission will evaluate if Greece is on the right way and is eligible to receive the next survival package or not. The situation is obvious (Greece is bankrupt!) and the outcome of the investigation is obvious (Greece is on the right way!) and everybody will pat each other on the shoulder for the great crisis management.

In the meantime the Euro is (finally!!) reacting to the developments. The EUR/USD conversion dropped quickly from 1.44 to 1.3650 and a look at the charts reveals a ugly picture: the EUR broke the 15-month uptrend to the downside and in addition the price fell back into the 4-year downtrend (the downtrend started at the peak in July 2008 at 1.6038; it was broken to the upside in early April and consolidated above the downtrend line until a few days ago). Consequently, the Dollar Index completed a "bottom-building" process that started beginning of May, broke the 15-month downtrend, all MAs and a few other resistance levels. However this move didn't happen due to underlying strength of the US Dollar but weakness of other currencies, lead by the Euro. Let's see if this development is sustainable before it makes sense to come up with any conclusions and effects resulting from the Dollar strength. Having said that, one immediate effect, weakness in commodities, should have a positive effect down the road but also short-term, once the dust settles.

The sensitivity regarding any headlines from Europe is huge, so while the market will open down a couple of percent, one mention of a water-proof band aid (or an invisible blanket) or, more substantially, some massive liquidity action from the ECB could turn everything around in a second.

While quantitative easing from central banks remains the big wild-card, the underlying fundamental picture could be subject to continued changes, lead by earnings and growth revisions to the downside. So any short-covering rally may be short-lived as investors will get reminded that it is not all about a small country in Europe sliding into the Mediterranean Sea
but that the domestic economic situation doesn't look a lot better.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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