Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 14 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 14

(Marco Bonelli) How long does playing in shallow water make investors happy?


Without any new data or developments, every word coming out of any European politician's mouth that remotely sounds positive gets cheered and almost celebrated as if the crisis is over. As most of these words don't really suggest a deep knowledge of the matter in talk, it isn't worth listening too much. Nonetheless, as usual the lack of bad news helps calming the nerves, short positions get closed and market players reposition themselves for the next move.


At least the macro-economic front starts producing some headlines again. August retail sales along with downward revisions for July show that consumer retail spending was basically flat in Q3 so far. The next challenge will be various manufacturing surveys for September and of course the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. With little new news and investors slowly digesting the apparent macro issues (domestic and international), the way the market trades and the way investors act, easily leaves the impression that all bad news is already in the prices!

A look at the technology sector demonstrates that the best. The outperformance in the technology sector is worth watching. Not only is it part of the best performing sectors in the SPX for days, not only did the Nasdaq already recover back to the top of the consolidation range, it also shrugs off a number of revenue and profit warnings (ALTR, TXN, LSCC) resulting in a break-out of the SOX semiconductor index. You add a little bit of M&A activity (like the BRCM, Netlogic deal from yesterday), mix it with other takeover rumors and throw in a few positive comments from analyst-days (CSCO yesterday, MSFT today) and conferences, followed by a number of analyst upgrades and you have the recipe for a nice relief rally.

Let's keep on playing in shallow water, let's pretend that all the bad news is in the prices and let's see how far the technology sector can pull everybody else to the upside. Once again, a technical rebound (definitely worth playing for short-term players) and part of the bottom building process but the existing uncertainties will probably be the reason that the bottom building process will last longer and the market hasn't seen the lows of the year yet.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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