Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 16 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 16

(Marco Bonelli) Ok, we had a (light) QE operation from the ECB; with the coordinated Dollar liquidity measures (resulting in open-ended short-term loan access for European banks) the ECB and other western central banks created sort of a TARP facility (or at least the first step towards it); now we need a Trillion Dollar fiscal stimulus program (financed by the launch of Euro-Bonds) and all the problems are solved, right?


Although the announcement from Fed, ECB and three other central banks yesterday clearly demonstrates that there are most likely more serious problems in the interbank lending market than market players read in a couple of headlines, at least the markets saw some kind of action which is already a welcome change to useless statements, conference calls and other opinions. Everybody knows that the sovereign debt crisis didn't change at all but the lack of further bad news along with some liquidity cushion is definitely some relief.

The US markets reacted positively and the Dollar lost some of its safe-haven gains from the last two weeks (lifting commodities and energy as well as basic material stocks higher). A slightly better than expected Philadelphia Fed Index for September (which by the way is still quite close to the lows from 2008) also helped lift all major indexes right to the first resistance levels within the bottom-building range. Although the technology sector relinquished its leader position of best performing sectors to financials, energy, industrials and basic materials, the NDX (as the best performing of the major indexes) has another 6.6% to go (after already gaining 12.3% in the past four weeks) to regain the levels from end of July, a 10-year high! The 200day MA runs at 2289.5 and the 100day MA at 2285.9 - the index closed at 2286.56 yesterday!

The relief reaction from Europe still has some positive effects and investors might not be totally scared going into the weekend. The market also showed impressive resilience to negative headlines in regard of profit / revenue warnings or negative estimate revisions, nevertheless the next macro-economic numbers will remind market players in which environment they are operating. For today, quadruple witching day for options and futures will provide some natural volatility but maybe it's up to the Michigan Consumer Confidence (that plunged to 2008/2009 levels in August) to determine today's market direction. No substantial improvement could lead to some profit-taking ahead of a busy week next week.

Trade well and have a great weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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