Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

lunedì 19 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 19

(Marco Bonelli) There is already a lot of noise out before the trading week even started: European Secretaries of Finance meeting from the weekend, emergency meetings in Greece, a couple of coupon payments on Greek debt due this week, FOMC meeting, President Obama introducing another budget deficit plan, ORCL and ADBE reporting earnings tomorrow, UTX obviously interested in buying GR and a few more headlines.

Many of the mentioned events will have more or less impact on the market direction and will also feed into answering the most important fundamental question:

Is the recovery trend after coming out of the Great Recession in 2009 still intact or has the US but also global economy entered a different stage, off the recovery trend? This question is particularly important and also symbolic because the NDX, as the first of the major indexes, along with a number of sector indexes, reached the 2 ½ year uptrend, that started in March 2009 and that got broken beginning of August. I believe we entered a different stage and that's why the market won't be able to maintain current levels!

On Friday, the NDX and SOX closed right at the trend. In the cyclical area, basic materials and the trucking, railroad sector closed slightly below the 2 ½ year uptrend. Probably most surprisingly, discretionary retail and the hotel, restaurant sector in the consumer space already broke that important trend line which catapults them to the best performing sectors overall (for instance the S&P 500 Retailing Index is 5% away from reaching a new all-time high, which is even more surprising when you look at the economic outlook component of the September Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, that reached the lowest level since 1980!).

So again, if you believe that charts express more than just a few lines on a piece of paper, this is a symbolic development! If stocks continue to rise and gradually move back into the uptrend, it means nothing more than that the economic expansion after the recession is still intact! On the contrary, if the 2 ½ year recovery is over and the US and global economy already entered a new and different stage in spring/summer, then the market in general will fail to move back into that technical trend line and if it still does, it will not be able to sustain that move for a long time.

Although the market demonstrated tremendous resilience recently, the move from the last three trading days already showed no real leadership and weakness in market internals like adv/decl-ratio and up/down-volume but it continued due to lack of bad news. This could change: President Obama almost has a track-record of driving stock prices lower when he speaks, the FOMC meeting could be disappointing due to lack of significant action, and any temporary "solution" in Europe in regard of Greece will probably be a cheap and lousy compromise as European officials still don't understand the situation - enough reason for a disappointing week!

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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