Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 2 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 2

(Marco Bonelli) It's back to the basics: Bad payroll number - bad market!


The Thursday closing levels of all major indexes (except the Russell 2000 and Value Line Index) delivered an interesting message: Earlier this week, the market broke above the rally highs from the first rebound attempt three weeks ago, the intraday reversal from Wednesday and the steady selling from yesterday pushed almost all indexes back to these breakout levels. Sitting right at the edge, today's labor report will be the trigger to decide, if the worst is over and the market moves higher from here or if there are still a lot of unresolved issues and the market falls back into the bottom-building range.

Short-term speaking, as the market already played the QE3-card the last few days, market players will probably concentrate on the basics and going into the report, the payroll number came down to one message: "Good number - reduced recession risk - good for the market!" or " Bad number - weak economy with risk for recession - bad for the market!"

The message is clear! Obviously there is nothing positive in the report from the BLS. Zero payroll growth and revised figures from the month before could almost be treated as a negative number, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the market substantially lower: As we haven't had 300 points or more down in the Dow Jones for a few days, there is a good chance we see it today!

Moving away from that and stepping back a little bit, the recent reports of the Chicago PMI and the National ISM Manufacturing Index (which were both reported better than expected), emphasize the question at which stage the market is and which kind of expectations are currently discounted. Taking these two economic reports as an example, are overall economic expectations too low? Going further, are concerns of a double-dip recession maybe really exaggerated? Only talking hypothetically, if the market did discount a recession at the lows on August 9th and the market mirrored a solid slow growth environment with record earnings in the months until July, maybe the middle ground (where the market traded on Wednesday) is the right level in terms of economic reality, very slow growth but no recession either - as indicated by the two manufacturing surveys?

Anyway, it's just a thought. Already today, a lot of the unresolved issues that got swept under the carpet show their faces, Europe, bond yields and spreads, CDS, state of health of European banks (all of this is nicely reflected in the weakening Euro in the past two days) but also here in the US (BAC). After Labor Day, the question where the market stands and where it goes will get asked again but today it's all about a very disappointing labor market. If the market happens to close down a few % today, there could easily be second thoughts over the weekend and investors may come back on Tuesday, eager to buy stocks again as they fully anticipate a QE3 announcement rather sooner than later.

Trade well and have a nice long weekend.
                                                                           


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director - International for CL King & Associate in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

2 commenti:

  1. molto complicato tradurre i commenti di mercato in italiano ? gentile la Vs. eventuale attenzione...

    RispondiElimina
  2. Ciao Anonimo,

    non c'é tempo per fare le traduzioni. Dovrebbero arrivarne altri in italiano.
    Comunque imparare una nuova lingua fa sempre bene.

    RispondiElimina

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