Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 23 settembre 2011

Market Comment - September 23

(Marco Bonelli) Finally, the market broke through its August lows - or didn't it?


It depends where you look at. The Dow Jones bounced right off the 10600 low, the SPX didn't even get all way down to 1101.50 and the Nasdaq Indexes only fell back into the wide range and still a few % away from the lows (2330 in the Composite and 2035 in the NDX). So the market held the August lows, right? Quite a few comments highlighted the "once-in-a-lifetime" buying opportunity the market provides at current levels and most of these comments and calls are based on the hope that the mentioned supports holds.

When the blanket gets lifted it is obvious that a few major indexes and a lot of industry sector indexes already broke through their August lows.
The Value Line Index already mirrored and even foreshadowed the developments in the last few months. Yesterday this index broke through the August lows and despite the last minute rally, also closed almost 1% below. Beside that, all indexes in the financial sector, the energy sector, industrials and basic materials also broke their August lows while a number of other sector indexes and most of the major indexes closed at or slightly above the relevant levels. The Dow Jones Transportation Index is the most prominent example, underperforming the whole week, erasing all gains from last week, breaking the August lows at 4205 and closing 1.3% below that support line at 4150. So it depends how you look at it but I think it's not wrong to say that the market already broke through!

Sure, a close slightly below a support line cannot be really called a break as it needs a follow-through or at least a confirmation that the break appears to be sustainable. In the current environment, a quick short-covering relief rally is possible any minute as market players usually jump on any kind of "good news" (a comment from Europe, a comment from the Fed, an emergency liquidity injection for the banking sector etc.). However, ignoring any intraday activity, the situation for the global economy, the situation in Europe, the speculation in credit default swaps, interest rate spreads and confidence in any solution from the monetary or fiscal front continues to deteriorate. This deterioration of confidence will slowly but surely get reflected in Q3 earnings reports and Q4 earnings outlooks. The process of earnings revisions just started accelerating but it will most likely be another reason why any short-term snap-back rally from real or fictional support levels will be short-lived.

With that, a level between 1000 and 1050 in the SPX appears to be a more realistic level to talk about a low than current levels!

Trade well and have a good weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento

Per commentare é necessario un indirizzo email "@gmail.com". Se non ce l'hai puoi farlo qui, oppure iscrivendoti al vlog. Altrimenti puoi usare una delle altre opzioni disponibili nel menù "Commenta come".