Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 20 ottobre 2011

Market Comment - October 20

(Marco Bonelli) Don't blame AAPL, it's the market, dude!

Three reversals in three days, a disturbing sensitivity on every little burp out of Europe, overall mediocre Q3 earnings reports (there are very few "clean" reports out so far, that show earnings and revenues beat and guidance confirmed or raised) and confusing macro-economic data leave calling the direction of today's and tomorrow's market to flipping a coin every 30 minutes.


Earnings wise it appears that financial earnings are more seen as "it cannot get a lot worse". While earnings in most other sectors are very mixed, industrials companies are one of the few that tend to beat expectations and confirm guidance although the tone is more cautious, referring to the uncertain economic environment.

On the economic front, suspiciously strong September Housing Starts got offset by quite cautious comments from the Beige Book: "...economy grew modestly last month but business outlook weakened... / ...conditions remained weak..." Weekly Jobless Claims this morning continue to stay stubbornly above 400k. So far the only identifiable trend is that economic numbers are no longer sliding downhill but sort of stabilized and here the only "hard" data was last month's better than expected payroll figure and better than expected retail sales. Most other "better" than expected data came from sentiment related data and the Philadelphia Fed Index for October will also be the most important data to watch today.

Next to flipping a coin, the overall sentiment still appears to embrace the more optimistic outlook that took hold more than two weeks ago, although a lot of short-term disturbances (earnings, comments, rumors and other burps) get thrown in the way. So far the high volatility this week could be defined as a nerve-wrecking consolidation of the recent sharp gains before the move takes another run to the upside. 12000 in the Dow Jones and 1250 / 1260 in the SPX is possible and the rest depends on how the "master-plan" of the European Commission gets perceived that will hopefully get presented sometime this weekend (needless to say that the Dow Jones will trade closer to 11000 if Europe fails to come up with anything credible!). Once the short-term mess settles, investors will probably find out at one point that the overall fundamental outlook isn't that bright at all.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)


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