Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 21 ottobre 2011

Market Comment - October 21

(Marco Bonelli) Setting aside the fact that any proposal or "plan" coming out of one of the countless official and unofficial Kindergarten - meetings between European "leaders" has to be revised in a few weeks or months because the European economies are in a state between sharp deceleration and implosion, let's just hope that at least something intelligent and slightly productive comes out from this weekend's wine & dine EU Summit!
(Needless to say that the approval of further austerity measures by the Greek parliament last night is useless and not even worth the paper it's printed on.)


The stock market continues to look at the positive, looks for slightly positive news in between the negative headlines, looks to interpret and talk negative news positive and even looks to ignore the negative, which is fine as long as no really new news or substantially worse news emerges.

Yesterday, October's Philadelphia Fed Index showed an unexpected rise in sentiment for the regional manufacturing sector. Again, this is one of the many sentiment surveys that don't necessarily reflect the real trends, nevertheless, the new order, shipments and average workweek sub-components moved up the most, while employment and inventories declined substantially. In other words, so far news from the macro economic front still supports the market's perception.

Without any big noise, financials showed some relative strength and even turned out to be on the top of the sector leader board yesterday. Investors know about the quarterly results of the large financial corporations and mostly disappointing numbers was less seen as a disappointment but more as "it cannot get a lot worse" and most stocks got bought. In the meantime a few regional banks and financial institutions reported surprisingly positive numbers. Last night COF and AXP also added positive headlines to the sector. Financials as a leading sector is usually positive for over market.

So overall and looking beyond the wild swings in currencies and commodities and all rumors and comments, it could turn out to be a positive day with a mix of hopeful optimism going into the weekend and taking some bets off the table (because you never know...). Short-term, 12000 in the Dow Jones and 1250/1260 in the SPX continues to be possible but everything gets re-evaluated next week.

Trade well and have a great weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento

Per commentare é necessario un indirizzo email "@gmail.com". Se non ce l'hai puoi farlo qui, oppure iscrivendoti al vlog. Altrimenti puoi usare una delle altre opzioni disponibili nel menù "Commenta come".