Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 26 ottobre 2011

Market Comment - October 26

(Marco Bonelli) Taking the European issues aside, yesterday's orderly and unexciting sell-off could easily be the famous pull-back to buy the dip:
A not excessively negative market breadth, technology and consumer stocks showing relative strength throughout the day, multiple attempts to buy the dip earlier in the day (despite a cancellation of a meeting of the finance ministers at today's EU Summit), the NDX falling back into its 2300-2375 trading range and also closing a small gap from beginning of the week at 2336 and the Dow Jones, SPX, Nasdaq Composite and NDX magically pulling back to their September highs (11717, 1230.7, 2643.4, 2339, respectively).

The continued light optimism regarding the macro-economic outlook may support investors' decision to jump in now before the rally resumes and the performance pressure becomes unbearable. Better September Housing Starts and October Philadelphia Fed Index from last week gets joined by bottom-line quite strong September Durable Goods Orders while comments from UPS ("...continue to see a slow growth economy, but not as bad as earlier anticipated..." / "...see Q4 volumes picking up...") mirror the cautious optimism already expressed by FDX and a number of industrial corporations, CAT probably one of the most prominent ones. Having said that, although Q3 GDP appears to be stronger than anticipated in summer, as we know, a few better numbers don't necessarily make the trend yet, but that's already reflected in the current cautious sentiment that got some psychological support by yesterday's pull-back.

Finally let's closely watch the Euro and the Dollar, now as the German Parliament approved the plan for an EFSF expansion and a few more drafts of the European "rescue" plan leaked. The EUR creeps closer to 1.40 versus the Dollar and the Dollar Index DXY trades very close to important support levels at 76 and 75, with the 200day MA also running at 75.79 and posing as technical support level. Stocks and commodities got a lift in recent days by a declining Dollar, so it will be interesting if a lousy and flawed compromise "master-plan" that continually gets postponed will be perceived as a sign of strength that will help rallying markets further or if the inevitable caution flags will bring everything to an abrupt end.

So far, the cautious optimism lives and buying any dips appears to be the only chance for investors to catch up with the benchmark.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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