Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 17 novembre 2011

Market Comment - November 17

(Marco Bonelli) Did weekly jobless claims finally turn a corner?

The second consecutive report below 400k new jobless claims (and a new 7-month low) is kind of encouraging! Maybe we should just leave the report as it is and be encouraged without raising questions whether the recent decline happened because more and more unemployed become ineligible (or also discouraged) to file or because more unemployed decided to take seasonal temp jobs in retail for instance, so let's just let it stand as a positive number.


Other than that, there is nothing new, mixed Q3 retail earnings, rather disappointing results from AMAT and NTAP and ongoing negative comments following DELL's results from Tuesday in the technology sector, selective appreciation in commodity prices, crude oil and heating oil in particular (both trade slightly off 4-month highs), European bond yields rising, the usual.

Contagion fears were once again reason for the classic intraday reversal yesterday after Fitch pointed out the risks US banks face if the European crisis worsens. That sell-off in the last hour yesterday was actually something new (although it wasn't a huge surprise giving ongoing weak market breadth of each of the rebounds we saw this week), at least something market players haven't seen for a while as the reversals in the past couple of weeks were usually to the upside. With that, the Dow Jones broke again below its 200day MA, the SPX broke below 1250 and came close to the lows from Wednesday last week, the Nasdaq Composite made a new low for the week and never managed to move above its 200day MA and the Russell 2000 settled back into the well-discussed flag formation after attempting to break to the upside as the first of the major averages. So far, it's just a regular pull-back that didn't change the chart-picture so we shouldn't read too much into it, especially as futures recovered this morning after better economic numbers and hopes stay alive in Europe after the new Greek and Italian governments take on their tasks and started discussing the obvious topics.

In this fragile environment, any new data (like the upcoming Philadelphia Fed Index from November) or headline could move prices substantially to the upside or downside, so let's carefully follow the minute charts - once again! (Just a reminder, the Nasdaq only partially closed the gap from last Friday; the gap in the Nasdaq Composite will be closed at 2625.20, in the NDX at 2312.20.)

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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