Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

lunedì 21 novembre 2011

Market Comment - November 21

(Marco Bonelli) Since October 4, market rallies and rebounds were seen as a positive sign as most indexes broke technical resistance levels while short-term support levels provided the base for another bounce-back. This has changed! With critical support levels broken, any market rally or rebound is seen as just an attempt to regain ground and while former support levels become even stronger resistances the longer another bounce-back fails to break it - a major psychological shift!


There is a lot of noise about the obvious failure of the Super-Committee to come up with any spending cut proposal. While this wasn't totally unexpected and also won't have any material impact until mandatory spending cuts go into effect in January 2013, the psychological effect of another political failure and the theoretical implication on industry sector that may be affected by potential spending cuts should not get under-estimated.

Bottom-line it's not about any short-term political games, either in the United States or in Europe, it's more about the short-term and even more importantly the medium-term fundamental trends that show deterioration globally and unfortunately the mentioned short-term noise from the political side strengthens the fundamental trends due to increased uncertainty and lack of confidence.

Despite option expiration, Friday's trading session was remarkably uneventful with only a few short-lived erratic moves that left financials, consumer staples and industrials as outperformers while technology continued to dramatically underperform the overall market (HPQ's earnings report tonight is unlikely to change that trend). But again, 2600 in the Nasdaq Composite and 2300 in the NDX is far behind (or better, above us) and all major averages fell back into the trading-range from August and September, so from this position it is far more difficult to advance than during the last three weeks when indexes made attempts to completely erase the losses from August, riding on a wave of optimism.

After a short break on Friday, the SPX, Euro, commodity correlation works again. The SPX -just to pick one example- will probably break below its 50day MA at 1206.80 and while the psychological 1200 level might be used for a short-term rebound level, 1220 and 1230.70 are major resistance levels, today and for the week, just in case investors try to turn almost non-existent confidence into year-end optimism. At the end it is Thanksgiving week and Christmas is around the corner, right!

For their Christmas shopping, investors may prefer to wait until the major indexes dive deeper into the old trading range and may consider to start buying at levels 6 to 8% lower from Friday's close. It looks like the markets are right on track!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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