Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 22 novembre 2011

Market Comment - November 22

(Marco Bonelli) It's good that everything develops as expected, doesn't it?

Super-Committee officially failed to come up with any solution - as expected; Q3 GDP revised down - as expected; HPQ reported mixed earnings and provided a disappointing outlook - as expected; the rest of last night's earnings was mixed - as expected (and nobody cares about Q3 earnings anymore anyway); bond auctions mixed and yields rising in Europe - as expected; in other words, it's good to know where the road goes!

All major averages broke some more remaining technical support levels and most indexes dove a bit deeper into the August / September trading-range, all on extremely negative market breadth and above average volume. The only index that held relatively well until Friday last week, was the Dow Jones Transportation Index. As expected, it sold off yesterday, broke the flag formation to the downside but still stayed above the September highs, due to relative strength in the trucking and railroad sector (weekly rail car-loads still grow at a slow pace and don't suggest a breakdown of domestic economic growth!). So the relative outperformance of one of the most economy-sensitive indexes is worth watching.

There is one other interesting development, which is a short-term break of the close correlation of the SPX and the Euro that worked very well over the last months and years. This correlation got a little bit off-track since middle of last week. While the Euro traded in a tight 1.345 - 1.355 (vs. the USD) trading range over the last four trading days, the SPX lost about 5.5% of its value and sold of particularly hard when the Euro was basically flat. As it is only four trading days, you cannot really call it de-coupling yet but if this development continues it shows that the US market becomes increasingly concerned about other issues - to a big degree also domestic ones.

Investors will most likely digest yesterday's development today, may think about if it's worth buying the market as the losses from the last four trading days may have been overdone, may come up with no real reason why the market should be bought and may decide to wait for more data and a more convincing trigger. In fact, tomorrow will be a lot more interesting as PMI indexes get published in China and Europe and the October Durable Goods Orders data gets releases in the US. These statistics will give investors another hint how the global economic trends look like. Let's stay tuned, but let's not get too excited about any "triggered" rally lasting long!

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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