Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 23 novembre 2011

Market Comment - November 23

(Marco Bonelli) So in theory, the new IMF's Precautionary Credit Line will keep Europe and the rest of the world liquid and a snap-back of inventories in Q4 will secure strong GDP growth in the US, right? Let me think...


So when a European country has some "actual" and "potential" liquidity needs during times of crisis, can it easily tap into the PCL (Precautionary Credit Line), which by the way replaces the PLL (Precautionary Liquidity Line) and bypass all existing and non-existing liquidity instruments within Europe (EU, EMU, European Commission, ECB)? This sounds a bit too easy, doesn't it! Whether Europe needs to come to rescue first or not, the next question is if the maximum access of $10Bln for Portugal, $40.2Bln for Spain, $46Bln for Belgium and $78.8Bln for Italy will be enough when the crisis worsens and liquidity dries up completely. So many questions remain...

Back to the US economy: Quite a few comments suggested that the decline in inventories in Q3 (which was the main reason for the downward revision of GDP growth) will lead to an even more positive inventory effect in Q4. First, the question comes up if inventories really need to be sharply restocked given the deteriorating demand trends around the globe. And second, the same question comes up referring to current inventory levels in general: Just taking a look at the change of inventories over the last quarters (from 1Q2010 to 3Q2011: +3.1%, +0.79%, +0.86%, -1.79%, +0.32%, -0.28%, -1.55%) it shows that the only meaningful inventory reduction happened in 4Q2010 and in the recent 3Q2011 while there was a build-up of inventories in most other quarters. This view may be a bit too simplified; nevertheless the question remains if inventories really need to be stocked up given continued weak and even deteriorating global economic trends...

Sticking with economic numbers and trends, October Durable Goods Orders were disappointing, September data got sharply revised to the downside, October Personal Income and Spending data finally reversed after months of spending outpacing income and weekly jobless claims are on the way back to the 400K mark. On the global front, PMI data out of China and Europe showed continued contraction in the manufacturing sector while the service sector in Germany and France showed a slight gain off the critical 50 level. Overall, any recovery hopes may have to get pushed out a bit...

Yesterday, there was some good news and bad news. The good news was that the major indexes defended the lows from Monday this week (only the Russell 2000 and Value Line Index closed slightly below; the bad news was that it didn't improve the medium-term chart-picture at all. The indexes broke all short-term support levels, including all moving averages to the downside and stay inside their August, September trading range. With overall sentiment only reluctantly embracing a more cautious side, any rebound attempt may be short-lived. Given all fundamental trends, another 5% downside is probably only a question of time!

Trade well and happy Thanksgiving!


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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