Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 30 novembre 2011

Market Comment - November 30

(Marco Bonelli) So there is the world before 8.00am EST and there is the world after 8.15am EST - a slight difference...


Any tweaking of the liquidity screw by central banks globally was, is and will be the unpredictable wild-card for all markets (don't fight the Fed and of course don't fight global central banks!). You also add some easing from central banks in China and Thailand and here you go. Disregarding this overwhelming action, the November ADP Employment Change data was the key figure to determine the short-term market direction. Needless to say that both events, the central bank announcement and a better than expected jobs report (that adds to a few other better than expected statistic since middle of October, are - short-term speaking - unbeatable.

Interestingly Fed Vice-Chairman Janet Yellen strongly expressed that "scope remains for additional easing" at a speech yesterday.

Another interesting observation was that during the last couple of days, calls and warnings of an almost imminent collapse of the Euro and the European crisis worsening increased dramatically. Usually if sentiment towards one particular event switches to the extreme side, it is at least worth paying extra attention in regard of any contrarian development. Yesterday also showed a lot of skepticism about the Tuesday's rally and sentiment clearly leaned towards the negative side. With the developments this morning, coupled with already raised expectations for the consumer sector after strong Thanksgiving sales and a jump in Consumer Sentiment in November, overall sentiment will clearly get a strong boost and expectations for a economic recovery and a solution for the European crisis will get raised sharply!

The stock market is driven by three factors: liquidity, sentiment and fundamentals. If fundamentals are known and remain unchanged, liquidity and sentiment are the dominant drivers, however, if fundamentals are changing (or to be more precise, keep on deteriorating) and investors don't know the underlying base, fundamental trends eventually will prevail. But this is clearly not the case today and investors happily embrace the former option, although the scenario and concerns of the world before 8.00am EST may just have been pushed out to a point in the future.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)


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