Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 8 novembre 2011

Market Comment - November 8

(Marco Bonelli) The headline risk is to the upside! Really...? Really...!

The market pared losses yesterday after ECB's Juergen Stark said that "the region's debt crisis will be under control in two years at the latest."

Are you kidding me? No...!


But in the mean-time, the Eurozone finance ministers scheduled another "emergency" meeting for November 17 to discuss various unresolved issues (which really means all issues because none of the issues in Europe is resolved).

So what turned out to be an almost classic day for day-traders who play the minute charts became another buy-the-dip opportunity. After the opening the SPX failed at the 7-day down-trend from the highs end of October, broke the important 1250 support level and also broke the 4-day uptrend from the lows November 1. Referring to the advance-decline ratio, market breadth throughout the day was very poor and volume was well below average. With that, although all major indexes closed at the highs of the day, the intra-day reversal and rally was far away from being convincing. Nevertheless and on a positive note, the SPX and most other major indexes remain above the highs from September and defended levels that were regained after rebounding from last week's Monday/Tuesday sell-off. To the upside - and now moving away from the minute-charts -, the neckline from the famous head-and-shoulder formation (that developed in the first half of this year) at 1272 is one of the most important levels to watch, which almost matches the 200day MA that currently runs at 1273.

With very little macro-economic data out this week and the bulk of the Q3 earnings reporting season behind us, today and the next few days will be again about playing the headlines and playing some chart-levels. So it's all up to what's going on in Italy and Greece and probably another smart statement or two that will be perceived as a positive sign...

Having said that, considering the huge volatility in the market and looking at the underlying weak fundamental trends, staying on the sidelines or further lightening up into any strength, still seems to make a lot of sense!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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