Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

lunedì 28 novembre 2011

Merket Comment - November 28

( Marco Bonelli) Why is history no longer a guide for the future?

The worst Thanksgiving trading week in history (historically that week shows a better performance), a strong Monday (after Thanksgiving) opening (historically the market trades down on that day), a year-to-date down pre-election year for the stock market (historically, pre-election years are good for the stock market - without exceptions going back to 1941). So what happens or will happen to the year-end rally, Santa Clause rally, January effect, small-cap vs large-cap trade and "Dogs of the Dow"-trade (all which we should see latest by middle of December - historically speaking)? Will tax-loss selling towards year-end play any role?


Although it's hard to escape the "Black Friday" craziness before and after November 25 ("...best Black Friday ever...!?" / "...heaviest discounting, promotions ever...?!") and the question whether tons of sales statistics over the weekend is a mirror of consumer spending into the holidays or more a soothing distraction of the painful underlying trends is probably fair, the future levels and the strong opening comes down to a technical reaction from highly oversold levels - and some positive trigger headlines are certainly welcome.

The stock market closed down on seven consecutive trading sessions, Wednesday and Friday in particular, the market closed at the lows of the day, the Dow Jones dropped to a support line at 11258 form 2010, many industry sector in the technology, industrial and energy space already dropped to the lows from August, which works as a technical support level and a number of single stocks trade at important levels, like AAPL that closed right at its 200 day MA for instance. Also the Euro came close to its October 4th lows of 1.3146 versus the Dollar and is rebounding this morning. So anything else than a nice rebound today would be surprising.

How long will it last? Well, all major indexes dropped well into the old trading range from August and September (the Value Line Index already visited the lows from August!), so even a strong day today could be downgraded to simple "range-trading". Despite all the noise this morning, let's not forget that deteriorating fundamental trends were the reason why all major US averages lost almost 10% in less than two weeks. For example Q4 S&P 500 earnings growth is now down to 8.0% and 6.9% (ex financials) and Q1 growth to 5.1 and 5.2%, respectively (Q4 estimates are down from 11.9% and 10.9% (ex financials) from just six weeks ago). Regarding macro-economic trends, a number of economic data from October and November, with the ADP Employment Change and the official BLS Employment report from November probably the most important, investors will get plenty of opportunity to analyze if a few better than expected data for Q4 earlier this month may become a trend...

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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