Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 2 dicembre 2011

Market Comment - December 2

(Marco Bonelli) It's very good news! No, it's mixed! Wait, it looks ok, but...

Higher revisions in payrolls for September and October, slightly lower than expected November payrolls, but... an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, mostly due to a lower civilian labor force! In light of the recent better than expected economic reports, this report might also be seen as positive, although the fact remains unchanged that the labor market is extremely sluggish.


Another round of better than expected economic numbers, another round of slightly positive comments from Europe, another round of symbolic action in the central bank liquidity department, the end of the year nearing and performance pressure mounting although this week will leave investors more hopeful and in a better Christmas mood.

Back to the payroll data: 140k private payrolls added, of which 58k came from trade/transportation and 50k from retail. Considering that most of the retail jobs are seasonal jobs for the holiday season and might go away beginning of next year, the overall level of payroll additions is still quite lousy, given a $14.5 Trillion economy. Oh wait a moment, labor data is a lagging economic indicator (by school book definition), so looking at some better than expected data in recent weeks and expectations for an acceleration of the slow growth in full swing, the labor market will follow, right? It doesn't matter that market participants looked at the payroll data as a mirror of the state of the economy and almost treated it as a "leading" indicator up to a few weeks ago.

Monthly economic data, expectations and sentiment usually swings around the cyclical fundamental trend which itself swings around the secular fundamental trend. The market has gone through this exercise a few times over the last months and right now, economic data and expectations are moving up again. You add the historical strong season for stocks, some year-end rally hopes and it's easy to predict a stock market moving higher.

Having said that, I don't see any signs that the cyclical fundamental trend for the global economy has changed. This might not matter today and next week but it will matter in the future!

Trade well, happy Friday and have a great weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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