Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 27 dicembre 2011

Market Comment - December 27

(Marco Bonelli) Call it the light version of this year's financial-and-economic-environment-abc...

Some headlines and statistics about retails sales (including a special story about SHLD) that everybody already knew about, some surveys about the outlook of the US economy that the stock-market already embraced a few weeks ago, some weaker than expected economic data out of Europe that nobody is really surprise by and therefore only gets limited attention, an Italian bond-auction that everybody expects to be sort of decent (although 10yr yield in Italy are creeping back up to 7%), reports about deposits and borrowing by the ECB that nobody really cares about at the moment and discussions about the health of banks globally in general and BAC in particular that nobody really knows the answer to anyway - just to name a few of the new but old stories.

In a week of light pre-Christmas trading last week, the chart picture of all major indexes improved considerably: The Dow Jones Industrials and Dow Jones Transportation Index recorded a new closing high since the market melt-down started end of July (which officially classifies as a buy-signal from the Dow Theory); the SPX broke back above its 200 day MA; the Nasdaq Composite confirmed its level above 2600 and the SPX, Russell 2000 and Value Line Index broke the short-term down-trend from November. Only the S&P 400 (Mid-cap) and the Value Line Index trade below their September highs, while all other averages trade closer to the highs from beginning of October.

On the contrary, a weak Euro (that more and more suggests an end of the three-year old Euro - SPX correlation!) and stubbornly high bond yields and CDS levels in Europe are slightly concerning, although not really surprising. It should be quite certain that the European economic and debt crisis is far from over and at one or more times, a lot of concerns will resurface in 2012 that are currently kept under the liquidity carpet. And by the way, a deteriorating value of the Euro can only be beneficial to the European export industry!

For now and the next few weeks, the improving outlook for the US economy, the improving chart-pictures and a lot of uncertainties that bothered investors through-out the year that either subsided, were discussed to death or get ignored otherwise create an environment for better stock prices ahead. For the first time in months, holding long-positions and buying the dips might be a valid medium-term investment strategy!

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

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