Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 28 dicembre 2011

Market Comment - December 28

(Marco Bonelli) A consolidation day after strong pre-Christmas gains behind us - another consolidation day on the way!

And the consolidation day behind us even managed to push the Nasdaq Composite above its 50day MA, the NDX above its 200day MA and the Russell 2000 to a new December closing high. Beside consumer confidence at the highest level since March 2008 (disregarding a brief rebound over three months to even higher levels at the beginning of this year), this was already the most exciting development with trading volumes diminished to almost half of the average volume.


Talking consolidation, the Dollar Index DXY also appears to digest the steep gains from middle of the month, now currently trading at 79.86, off the high at 80.73 from December 14 but right at the high from October 4 at 79.84 and November 25 at 79.70, levels that now pose as support after they got broken to the upside on December 13. The level slightly above 80 is very crucial as it was already tested in 1991, 1992, 1995 and again in the last two trading days in 2004. A sustained break above 80 would pave the way for a move into the mid to high 80s. The strength in the Dollar may be mainly attributed to the best of a lot of questionable (not using the word "worse") alternatives as discussions are well alive if the slowdown of economic growth in China could be more a hard- than a soft-landing and also how deep the recession will turn out in Europe next year. In that context, the Euro continues to deteriorate and there is more evidence that the strong Euro-SPX correlation may have ended more than two weeks ago. Interestingly, commodities only react reluctantly to a stronger US Dollar (crude, gasoline, lumber and copper recorded rebounded strongly in the past trading days). At the same time the CRB Index faces the downtrend from May this year at 311 (today's high was 309.37), so let's see how long commodities are able to fight a stronger Dollar and if a stronger Dollar in general continues to be positive for the stock-market!

With three trading days left this year, some window-dressing and positioning for seasonal trades like the January effect, or small-/mid-cap outperformance might be the most activity we will see as trading volumes will likely remain depressed. Given the more positive outlook for the US economy, sharply reduced Q4 earnings estimates that now might turn out to be conservative, a mostly neutral sentiment among investors (that clearly shows hesitance to the upside) and a continuing improving chart picture, holding long-positions and buying dips like we see this morning appears to be a valid medium-term investment strategy!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own)

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento

Per commentare é necessario un indirizzo email "@gmail.com". Se non ce l'hai puoi farlo qui, oppure iscrivendoti al vlog. Altrimenti puoi usare una delle altre opzioni disponibili nel menù "Commenta come".