Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 13 gennaio 2012

Market Comment - January 13

(Marco Bonelli) So the Q4 results from JPM this morning is the breaking news today or isn't it?

What investors make out of in-line earnings and disappointing revenues remains to be seen. Furthermore the market should and will decide if weaker trading revenues and investment banking fees is a total surprise or not and if it's reason enough to take profits after a 20.88% run in the stock or a 19.38% performance in the BKX Index since December 19.

The only comment worth mentioning is that sentiment ahead of the earnings season remains very cautious as the majority of market participants obviously expect disappointing reports, even below sharply reduced expectations, coupled with a muted outlook.

Market bears were also confirmed by disappointing economic data yesterday (December retail sales and weekly jobless claims) and mixed signals out of Europe today with concerns of an imminent rating downgrade for some Euro-zone countries - a classic reminder that not a lot of things have actually changed and that there is plenty to worry about out there, right!

Well, actually there are a few favorable developments to mention: the outlook for the US economy improved in general, corporations across all industry sectors increasingly look for opportunities in M&A, joint-agreements and other alliances to position themselves for future growth, commodity prices sharply dropped in the last two trading days (thanks to a drop in the risk premium for energy prices after Europe's decision to delay an embargo on Iran oil), small- and mid-cap stocks classically outperform large caps so far this year, the industrial and technology sector outperforms, all major averages broke several critical chart levels to the upside during the past three week's rally, just to name a few.

With some negative headlines out and a three-day weekend coming up, some investors may prefer profit-taking, so let's see if the market recovers again from a weak opening and stages another intraday reversal to the upside later. In my view, the main drivers for a continued rally over the next few weeks - negative sentiment and low earnings expectations that may get beaten - remain very well intact. Buying dips like today and going long into earnings over the next couple of weeks might turn out as a successful strategy.

Trade well and happy Friday 13th!

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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