Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 18 gennaio 2012

Market Comment - January 18

(Marco Bonelli) How about a little bit more pessimism?

Concerns about US economic outlook, concerns about European economic outlook, concerns about global economic outlook, concerns about an intensifying European debt crisis, concerns about Greece leaving the Eurozone and a disorderly breakup of the monetary union (btw, does anybody expect an orderly break-up, if it happens?), concerns about the implications of the recent rating downgrades, concerns about the deteriorating Euro, concerns about banks and earnings in the financial sector in particular, concerns about earnings in general, concerns about the short-covering rally running out of steam, concerns about profit-taking after the Dow Jones failed to close above 12500 and the SPX above 1300, concerns, concerns, concerns..., did I miss anything?


Weak earnings and revenues in the banking sector were expected but USB and WFC showed that there is also light at the end of the tunnel. Generally, bank results show relatively strong loan growth numbers, in many cases the strongest since the financial crisis, so if current signs of a stronger recovery of the US economy turn out as valid, Q4 could easily be interpreted as the "trough".

CHKP, ASML, ADTN and LLTC provided some positive headlines in the technology space. Now it's up to the big guys, EBAY and XLNX tonight and the "Fab Four", IBM, MSFT, INTC and GOOG tomorrow night to follow through. The technology sector in particular could have one of the biggest potentials for earnings surprises and positive news as components like recent profit warnings in the sector, reports about weak demand and ongoing inventory correction were the topic of the daily discussion so far.

And the fact that the Dow Jones and SPX didn't manage to close above 12500 and 1300, respectively, on the first attempt isn't automatically a bad sign. In fact, a technical resistance line wouldn't be called resistance if it was a piece of cake to break through. The major indexes already broke through many important resistance levels that now act as support lines (1292.50, 1278 in the SPX for example or many September and November highs for most averages). Some profit-taking ahead of new events (earnings) coming up is normal and should be seen as a healthy development and not as a reason to hit the panic button. Any weakness as a result of this should be used to further accumulate positions to be positioned when the major indexes unexpectedly break through important resistance levels as the market looks past the many concerns that currently keep investors on the side-lines!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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