Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 20 gennaio 2012

Market Comment - January 20

(Marco Bonelli) Profit-taking, another intra-day reversal to the upside or even a short-covering rally?

Whatever happens today, if today turns out to be a profit-taking Friday (which is not a prediction!), it happens because traders take some money off the table in expectation of a technical pullback in the NDX as the index might have difficulties confirming the new 11-year high from yesterday. Earnings from last night were mostly better than expected or better than feared (with GOOG being the prominent example on the downside, although the one-quarter-top-next-quarter-quarter flop becomes a regular routine), so any profit-taking based on earnings should have a very limited downside potential!

So far the earnings reporting season delivers more positive than negative surprises (which is certainly all relative and mostly more psychological nature - nevertheless, with 68 S&P500 companies reported so far, 60.3% "surprised" to the upside, a number that started in the 40s at the beginning of the week). Economic numbers remain solid and even data whose headline appears to be below expectations bears some positive surprises when you dig into the details. For example yesterday's Philadelphia Fed Index for the period of January came in below expectations; however the 6-months business outlook was quite positive, so overall the figure was not that bad. Same with December Housing Starts, the headline way below expectations but mostly due to a 20.4% m-o-m drop in multi-family houses, which showed relative strength compared to single-family houses throughout the year. Now, single-family housing construction was up 4.4% in December, the highest level since April 2010 and clearly a positive surprise which even confirms the first signs of a housing recovery! You add a strong rebound in weekly rail traffic data (that resulted in a solid 1.5% gain in the Dow Jones Transportation Index and a new rally high - despite some interpretations of this week's flat performance as signs of a top) and you don't find too many arguments against a recovery of US economic growth!

2438.44 (intraday high from July 26) and 2429.50 (closing high from July 22) are the levels in the NDX to watch today! Another close above wouldn't be a surprise given continued cautious sentiment, would be a big contrarian move given that the majority of headlines cover the bad GOOG quarter instead of the good IBM, INTC and MSFT quarter but could easily be helped by one of the typical Friday afternoon announcements that Greece finally reached a deal with its creditors. If the NDX still closes below the mentioned levels, it's nothing more than a technical pull-back with another attempt to break to the upside following next week!

Trade well and have a great weekend!

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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