Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

lunedì 23 gennaio 2012

Market Comment - January 23

(Marco Bonelli) Once again - profit-taking, another intra-day reversal or even a short-covering rally?

Although the week basically starts off as the previous week ended, investors are pretty much left in a waiting position, which could lead to a bit more unpredictable trading:


o   Waiting for the next earnings with TXN and VMW as some of the more prominent companies reporting tonight

o   Waiting for any outcome and decision regarding Greece from the European Summit

o   Waiting for the FOMC meeting and any new indication regarding economic outlook and QE3

While there is a bit more acknowledgment that the stock market is in the middle of the strongest start of a year in decades, many comments emphasize the risk associated with the outcome of the various waiting exercises as mentioned above. Additionally, quite a few well performing stocks in the technology and homebuilding sector in particular get downgraded this morning; this in combination with the Dow Jones approaching its highs from May and July last year (as the second of the major averages after the NDX slightly closed above last year's closing high of 2429.50 the second consecutive day) might leave quite a few investors more expecting some bad news that will pull the market lower than good news that will propel the market higher:

o   Possible bad news from the earnings front that so far turned out to be a bit better than expected

o   Possible bad news from the European Summit as the parties couldn't agree on a voluntary debt-deal

o   Possible bad news from the FOMC meeting as it might disappoint hopes of a QE3 announcement in the upcoming future

o   Possible bad news from the market that might roll over, especially in the Dow Jones and NDX (also the Value Line Index that trades right at the critical 350 level, the high from October last year, the neckline of the h+s formation from 1H11 and a couple of points away from the 200day MA

The wild-card is probably Greece (sure, let's blame it on the Europeans again!) as earnings have a good chance to surprise on the upside (after sharply reduced expectations, especially in the past week!) and QE3 is not really on the road-map after overall better than expected economic numbers and a generally more optimistic assessment of the US economic outlook.

It's good that a considerable degree of caution still hangs in the air (and the acknowledgment of a stronger than expected rally so far is probably more subject to running after market gains than an outright bullish call). In this environment it is possible that certain chart levels get used to take profits but any downside is probably more technical nature than the start of a more serious correction as positive news still gets perceived as surprise that will continue to feed the contrarian rally over the next few weeks! Staying invested and still using weakness to accumulate positions in the technology, industrial and financial sector should still be the prevailing strategy!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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