Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 31 gennaio 2012

Market Comment - January 31

(Marco Bonelli) In the 19 trading days so far this year the SPX staged 12 intraday reversals to the upside after a weak opening; one of the most impressive reversals happened yesterday, although the price action was more impressive than the breadth (although the daily adv/decl ratio improved nicely from the lows of the day) - of those 12 reversals you will probably find as many contradicting comments whether the action is a positive or a negative! I would say it still reflects the market's strength, it consolidates the recent gains and should be seen as a positive!


After earnings already contributed their part to the rally, it is still mostly better than expected economic data along with a favorable economic outlook that provides support. Cyclical/ industrial/ capital-goods industries for instance, as reflected in averages like the Dow Jones Transportation Index or the S&P 500 Capital Goods Index haven't seen any real pull-back and continue to trade strongly. Another strong sector and relative outperformer remains the technology sector that experienced the most favorable earnings picture in the past weeks, compared to other sectors. Not surprisingly the NDX continues to trade at 11-year highs, above last year's high of 2438.44 from July. Back to the SPX that defended the psychological 1300 yesterday, as long as the index trades above 1292.66 (high from October) and 1280.20 (neckline from h+s formation), the odds continue to be favorable.

Corporations continue to streamline their businesses and position themselves the right way, through divestitures or M&A action which is clearly a positive. Comments like the one from U.S. Steel this morning ("...expect to report a significant improvement in our operating results in Q1...") in combination with positive expectations from numerous managements in general get well received and bode well for a more positive earnings outlook.

Having said that, is it time to rethink after a weaker than expected Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence for January? You will find as many positive as negative answers to this question. All I may say is that both are part of the highly volatile sentiment driven data that showed strong advances in the prior two months. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, hard data like the two employment reports will be of much higher priority. Also, if the (equally sentiment-driven but broader) national ISM Manufacturing Index tomorrow shows less depreciation than the Chicago Index, it usually gets perceived well. In the meantime, the market can resume its consolidation trading and exercise its intraday reversal practice, with technology, industrials and financials as the favorite sectors to stay long!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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