Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 15 febbraio 2012

Market Comment - February 15

(Marco Bonelli) The road to Dow Jones 13000 and new 44-months highs for the SPX!

But isn't it kind of sad that the stock-market's milestone party depends on whether some government officials with the back against the wall robo-sign a commitment letter that everybody knows has to be revised tomorrow?

The Dow Jones already broke out of last year's highs and 13000 would be a psychological milestone to convince those investors who laughed about any bullish calls in December when the Dow traded more than 1000 points lower than current levels. A break in the SPX above 1370.58, the highs from May last year would be an even bigger achievement and the index would also join the multi-year-high club. While the Nasdaq keeps on dancing from one new 11-year high to the next, the S&P400 Midcap and Russell 2000 still have a few percent until they are able to join the party.

Decent earnings from DE and CMCSA (partly offset by disappointing reports from ANF and OC) could assist to achieve these goals, as could a strong reading in the February Empire Manufacturing Index (here we go, at the highest level since June 2010 - but a look at the sub-components is less encouraging; also, the 6-months outlook dropped from 54.9 to 50.4) and January Industrial Production. Some investors will also take a closer look at the Minutes from the FOMC Meeting in order to find out how much the Fed is really committed towards another round of QE.

At that point I guess it still doesn't matter too much that trading volumes are about average with more volume on the downside during the last days and that market-breadth continues to deteriorate as long as the charts generally look in decent shape but let me point out one development that could be the pre-cursor for more to come: The Dow Jones Transportation Index broke its 4 ½ months uptrend from the October lows on Friday last week, rebounded but basically confirmed the break during the last days. On February 3, the index still broke out to new rally-highs and had less than 5% to reach a new all-time-high which now has a big question-mark behind it. If you believe in the Dow Theory or not, the Transportation Index is a major index that shouldn't be ignored, especially when you couple it with the recent spike in energy prices that finds crude oil above $100 and gasoline prices above $3.00 that not only means instantly higher fuel cost for trucks, planes and automobiles but higher expenses for households in general. Right now a couple more sector indexes in the cyclical space (electric equipment and pulp/paper) and a couple of sector indexes in the consumer discretionary space (specialty retailing and hotel/restaurant) also broke or trade right at their uptrend from October, so let's stay tuned as signs of changes usually come from the "field" (individual industry sectors) first before it shows on the "front-line" (major averages)!

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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