Market Comment - February 24

(Marco Bonelli) Short-term correction or no short-term correction - that is the question!

Very often, when too many people comment about the chance of a short-term correction and too many minor signs point towards a short-term correction, the expected pull-back doesn't come right away if the overall market mostly rides a bull-market wave.


Recent developments in energy prices, the Dow Jones Transportation Index, a few disappointing earnings reports and a bit of profit-taking in some high-flying sectors and stocks don't represent the needed trigger when the consensus expectation calls for an imminent correction due to highly overbought levels. Except in the DJ Transportation Index, most chart-trends still look ok; in fact, both SPX and NDX bounced off short-term support to close near rally highs. On the corporate level the market got presented some positive headlines: AAPL (which initially looked like, the stock might stage its second major intraday reversal to the downside in six trading days) kept hopes for a future dividend alive, acknowledging at their annual shareholder meeting that they have more cash than they need to run the company and after-hours earnings in CRM, ADSK, AIG and GPS were all solid.

While a short-term pull-back often (but not necessarily) gets initiated by a certain trigger that causes some selling or profit-taking without changing the underlying opinion, a longer-term, but cyclical correction that is based on the recognition that expectations departed to far from reality and that the consensus positive view for the second half 2012 (the "tough 1H, better 2H"-call gets embraced by the majority of analysts, economists and corporations) might have to be pushed out towards 2013 doesn't need a trigger; however, it takes some time to develop!

This transformation period could take a few more weeks and will most likely involve pull-backs, rebounds, reversals and even new highs, in other words, a paradise for some day-traders (and a nightmare for many others), a possibility for investors to take profits and lighten up on positions that ran "too far too fast" but also a possibility to identify and buy more defensive plays (like in the consumer and healthcare sector) with strong fundamentals or growth-stories (for instance in the technology sector) that haven't been widely discovered and therefore didn't fully participate in the bull-market since the lows from October last year.

We are entering the last trading days of the month (that historically show a more disappointing performance) where window-dressing and other end-of-the-month / beginning-of-the-month activity will likely add some volatility, so hopefully any short-term trigger doesn't jeopardize the solid monthly performance so far (Dow Jones up 2.78%, SPX up 3.89% and Nasdaq Composite up 5.09%).

Trade well and have a good weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)