Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 28 febbraio 2012

Market Comment - February 28

(Marco Bonelli) Today could be the first serious test for this rally to find out how resilient the market is, how much or little economic data weigh on the assessment of the economic recovery and how willingly investors jump in and buy because valuations are absolutely and relatively attractive.


So far the stock market rally hasn't been really challenged! I handful of below-expectation data in the past weeks but most other statistics confirmed the overall recovery theme and the housing recovery in particular (which was highlighted again yesterday after better January Pending Home Sales). Even a few bumps on the road to recovery in the first few months of this year will be more than offset by real improvements in the latter half of the year, at least according to the broad consensus among market participants and corporations!

- With that, are very weak January Durable Goods Orders (with and without transportation and defense) just a little pot-hole in the road?

- Will the momentum of yesterday's intraday reversal, the confirmation of the "risk-on" trade, the "trend-is-your friend"-game and end-of-the-month window-dressing easily roll over this disappointment from the macro-front?

It's true that the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Transportation showed a very impressive turnaround from yesterdays' weak opening. Another new all-time-high in AAPL certainly helped the Nasdaq with a good contribution but then it already becomes hard to identify the real strength. Not only was market breadth very weak (with more declining than advancing stocks at the NYSE and Nasdaq), the rally also faded in the last 60 minutes of trading and forced the Dow Jones to close below 13000 for the third time the index broke above this psychological mark during the day. Probably the most important factor in the reversal was sentiment as a lot of market participants almost desperately wait for a short-term pull-back and wonder how long the rally can still last.

Maybe the Durable Goods data is the trigger for the long-awaited short-term pull-back; maybe it's still too early. However, once investors get presented more disappointing economic data and combine this with flat to slightly negative earnings growth (according to Bloomberg data, estimates were further reduced and now point to -0.6% EPS growth for the S&P500 in Q1 and +1.2% EPS growth for Q2), the base under the "risk-on" trade could easily crumble and the trend won't be your friend any longer.

But these are just mind games, let's take some profits, reduce positions and not have a sleepless night over it!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento

Per commentare é necessario un indirizzo email "@gmail.com". Se non ce l'hai puoi farlo qui, oppure iscrivendoti al vlog. Altrimenti puoi usare una delle altre opzioni disponibili nel menù "Commenta come".