(Marco Bonelli) With TrimTabs forecasting only 45k new payrolls (based on tax with-holding reports), average expectations at 140k and insightful statistics like "...in the past eight months, the SPX fell after each BLS data, no matter if it was positive or negative..." published ahead of this morning's job report, the odds of the Dow Jones touching 13000, the SPX 1350 and the Nasdaq Composite 2900 today are not bad!
Activity (or non-activity!) among market participants remains very supportive for a continuation of the rally. While investors remain cautious and defensive, the risk-appetite among traders and momentum players is quite favorable when you look at the performance of the BTK Biotech Index and various sub-sectors in the technology sector and also watch how happily "fallen angels" like NFLX, RIMM and GMCR get picked up on any kind of rumor or positive news.
One critical point becomes clearer and clearer: The differences in economic growth from a global perspective are more and more in favor of the US economy which makes it difficult for any global investor to not look at the US market! The positive economic outlook continues to be the main fundamental driver and as long as economic data surprises on the upside, current sentiment coupled with increasing performance pressure pushes prices higher and it's still worth hanging on to positions in financials, technology, industrials and retailers (while the reaction after mostly better than expected January same-store sales was rather muted, the favorable jobs report will put this sector back on the radar).
Trade well and happy Friday!
(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)
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