Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 9 febbraio 2012

Market Comment - February 9

(Marco Bonelli) Only 116.05 points left - is there any reason why the Dow Jones will not be able to hit 13000?

It's probably similar to the "$100-rule" for stocks: once a stock trades at $95 and higher in an uptrend, it's highly likely that it hits $100 Dollar in the near-term future and even moves a bit higher. 13000 in the Dow Jones should be motivation enough even without another catalyst.


Having said that, a lot of earnings in the technology sector on Wednesday were quite decent, several M&A activities show that enterprises keep on positioning themselves for future growth and the Muppet Show in Greece seems to have a temporary happy ending in the script of the next chapter; you add a few positive market calls by strategists who missed the rally since middle of December and pick a few interesting charts (like the "Golden Cross" in the Russell 2000, or the Nasdaq and Value Line Index grinding higher, oh, and if the SPX manages to creep up to 1350, it will also manage another percent up to the highs from May last year), and you already have a few catalysts.

What about some weaker economic data out of Europe? With quite a few investors still skeptical and cautious, right now, a few weaker economic data here and there are still a positive for the market as it keeps the skepticism and cautiousness alive. Beside that, a few weaker economic data here and there should be pretty much expected but also needed as further insurance for continued easy monetary policy.

Nevertheless I would like to point out a couple of things: the scenario that pushed stocks sharply higher over the last eight weeks starts to become a bit mature; it's the same story week after week (economic recovery in the US, housing recovery, a few positive earnings surprises, easy central bank policy, hopes for a stabilization in European debt crisis etc.), which was quite exciting so far but the risk grows that the same story becomes boring. At the same time sentiment appears to move forward and market participants more and more seem to embrace this "boring" story; in other words, you now find as many arguments that explain why the market will move higher as you find reasons why the market will face an imminent sell-off (one of those bullish reasons for example is that there is plenty of liquidity out there to be invested - oh, really...). Additional statistics show bullishness slowly growing, strategists upgrading their view and switching to positive and a few investors who expected a weaker market based on the problems from last year, back away from that view and sort of acknowledge the resilience and strength of the market.

Unless further catalysts keep on piling up, this is definitely something to watch while the Dow Jones marches through the remaining 116.05 points in order to celebrate the 13000 party. Stay tuned!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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