Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 8 marzo 2012

Market Comment - March 8

(Marco Bonelli)  Greece cannot be blamed for the global economic slowdown and the sell-off in the stock-market on Tuesday and it shouldn't get the credit for pulling the world economy out of the swamp or the stock-market rebound!


It's a technical rebound accompanied by a flip-flopping news environment that shakes short-term sentiment from one extreme to the next. Everything sour on Tuesday, everything great yesterday and especially today - an environment, market participants know too well when the next direction of the market is increasingly unclear.

Certainly a solid ADP Employment Change number calmed down the nervous mood and once some indexes that dipped below 50day MA on Tuesday, rebounded above these levels, the recently weak financial, technology and industrial sectors regained some strength and the VIX (which gets way too much attention!) dipped again below the 20 level, the broad-based technical rebound was set.

In a fragile sentiment environment, it's easy to inflate events like the Greek bond swap or even AAPL's introduction of "The New iPad" and build a whole all-or-none (or risk-on) scenario on top, which often hints to a classic buy the rumor / sell the news development. In the same sentiment environment, the in-line with expectations, but strong ADP figure stirs up optimism towards Friday's government report, confirms the optimistic recovery scenario but ignores that most employment sub-components of various Fed indexes were reported lower in February and that quite a few economic data started coming in below optimistic expectations.

Let's put it this way, the risk of getting a payroll number of 150k or lower tomorrow is probably greater than the chance of seeing a number showing 250k payrolls or more!

Today, last year's highs in the Dow Jones and SPX, might be critical levels to watch as some averages fell back below these marks: 12876 for the Dow and 1356.50 (July's high), 1370.50 (May's high) for the SPX are the level for the market to break today or tomorrow in order to keep any hopes for the rebound alive. In the Nasdaq, the NDX already closed the gap from Tuesday intraday (Monday's close was 2614.92) but the Nasdaq Composite fell short and still has to advance to the 2950.48 level to call the gap closed, so Friday's highs are the next stop!

Let's watch the reaction to the inflated events, let's follow the fragile sentiment but let's not get cute with building on a scenario that increasingly appears too optimistic with too much wishful thinking!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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