Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 9 marzo 2012

Market Comment - March 9

(Marco Bonelli) Happy 3rd Birthday - Bull-Market! - On March 9, 2009, the SPX closed at its lows at 676.53!

Just in time for the party, the labor market report from the government for February reported the third consecutive non-farm payroll increase above 200k but the futures don't really seem to get into party mood this morning.


Maybe it's the fact that investors didn't hear or see anything new, that the status quo and the scenario that got played over the last 2 ½ months was just confirmed during the last few days:

- All economic numbers this week confirmed the economic recovery in the US, which is good!

Simultaneously there were confirmations of other developments:

- Weak Industrial Production in all European countries (except Germany) for January and lower than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales in China for February confirm the global economic slowdown, something that is also reflected in MCD's monthly sales report from yesterday.

- TXN and ALTR cutting their sales forecast for Q1 (TXN also warning on EPS) confirm the sharp deceleration of earnings growth that still shows negative growth in Q1 and a neglectable 1.5% in Q2.

Here the consensus was and still is, that Europe will go through a mild recession and economic growth in the core is already stabilizing and that China will see a soft-landing which stamps the "official" 7.5% GDP growth forecast as too conservative. On the earnings side, the weak picture in 1H gets pretty much ignored as all expectations are tuned to a (sharp) recovery in 2H, a scenario most market participants and corporations (HON and CIEN joined the crowded call earlier this week) support for the overall economy. Time will tell if the second half of 2012 will deliver what the majority now anticipates. On side-note: Given the bright outlook, isn't it a bit surprising that we currently see the highest insider selling since May last year?

After Tuesday's sell-off and Wednesday's and Thursday's rebound, market calls and opinions about the future direction of the stock market couldn't be more divided. Will the large-cap rally of the last two days last after the strong labor report this morning, or will investors take some money off the table due to the unlikelihood of a "sterilized" or "non-sterilized" QE3 action by the Fed? In addition there could be the possibility of a sell-the-news scenario after a successful but fabricated Greek bond-swap (the "rumor" that contributed to some of the buying in the past days!). At the end, with the favorable status-quo confirmed, the short-term direction of the market might hang in the charts.
And as we know, a correction could unfold in major selling or some back-and-forth sideway consolidation over some time.

Trade well and have a nice weekend!


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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