Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 12 aprile 2012

Market Comment - April 12

(Marco Bonelli) "Don't fight the Fed" becomes a bit difficult!

Last night, Fed Governor Janet Yellen delivered a more dovish speech that theoretically leaves the door open for further accommodation (I could also call it QE because these two letters became the synonym for any kind of accommodation). This followed a couple more hawkish comments from other officials that even suggested that monetary policy should be tightened within the next six to nine months.

Ben Bernanke himself sometimes sounds more bullish on the economy only to back-paddle in his next speech in an attempt to leave both options open - more accommodation and less accommodation. Yesterday's Beige Book delivered more positive headlines, totally embraced the "modest to moderate" growth scenario and even positively highlighted manufacturing and consumer spending but obviously didn't take into account mostly disappointing economic data for March, yet. At least consistently with that, the Fed started reducing the Monetary Base end of February. Then there is "Operation Twist", that runs out in June, nevertheless, the camp that calls for further accommodation or an official QE3 doesn't get tired. In other words, investors really know where the Fed stands and what their next step will be thanks to the increased transparency in communication but whatever they do, don't fight it!

In the meantime, "stocks stage a comeback" as they regain between 0.75 and 1.5% of the 4.5 to 7% lost in the prior five trading days, which still left the Dow Jones and SPX below their May 2011 highs (12876 and 1370.50, respectively). Is anybody convinced? As many market commentators talked about a short-term 5 to 7% correction, did a slight recovery in Spanish bond prices and better than expected AA earnings already put an end to the consolidation before it even started? One day the crash prediction gurus come out of their holes, the next day, the buy-the-dips bulls feel safe to voice their opinion.

Overall, gurus, commentators and other experts simply have to wait for more headlines from the earnings reports, although the higher weekly jobless claims (partly adjusted or not to the on- or off-seasonal changes minus early Easter plus five days in April, divided by seven) put a damper to the relatively weak rebound! Let's watch the SPX: the index broke through the uptrend from October and the highs from May last year on Tuesday. The trend runs at 1371.80, the high from May was 1370.50 and the 50day MA runs at 1374.50, depending where the index closes could determine the short-term direction - and GOOG earnings after the close may either lend big support or destroy all hopes.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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