Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 20 aprile 2012

Market Comment - April 20

(Marco Bonelli) The popularity of the 50day MA!

For two weeks the major averages are dancing around their 50day MA - another sign that spring is in full force...
After another intraday reversal of the market and the fact that the Nasdaq failed to break through the rebound highs from April 12, 17 and 18, the Dow Jones, SPX, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 400 Midcap closed again below the 50day MA (the Russell 2000 and the Value Line Index trade below the respective level for a while), which leaves the NDX as the only major that still trades above it!

As the Nasdaq appears to be in charge on the downside, helped by some erratic action in AAPL, next week, Tuesday (April 24,), could be one of those "make or break" moments for the market when AAPL reports its fiscal Q2 earnings that might turn out to be the most interesting report of the company in a while after the parabolic rise of its share price and analysts divided the most in a long time, how much iPhone and iPad sales will grow. It will come down to whether AAPL will beat consensus estimates by more or less than 30% - as it had done over the past few quarters...

In the meantime, investors have a lot to contemplate these days: Excitement about Q1 earnings grows as more companies beat estimates (80.7% of the 114 S&P500 companies that reported so far, beat estimates, although slightly); mostly flat to disappointing guidance for Q2 gets mostly ignored as the focus continues to be on a "better second half"; macro-economic numbers continue to disappoint but at least gasoline prices came off their top and dropped 6.4% in one week (the CRB Index in general trades at the lowest level since middle of December).

The decision if better Q1 earnings in combination with weaker economic data is enough to support a resumption of the rally continues to be a thought process, although next week delivers a number of high-profile earnings, a wave of macro-economic statistics along with the Fed's rate decision following a two-day FOMC Meeting.

Let's also keep an eye on the Dollar that appears to be in an interesting spot as the DXY Index developed a triangle formation over the last months, which is also defined by the medium-term uptrend that started end of August last year. The 80 level continues to be the critical level to break sustainably - unfortunately no real conclusions could be drawn in regard of the stock-market, as the whole risk-on, risk-off, decoupling-or-not, uncertainty-or-not and crisis-or-no-crisis game becomes a bit confusing!

Anyway, let's watch the 50day MA and we know where the market will move - in the next few minutes!

Trade well and have a great weekend.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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