Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 24 aprile 2012

Market Comment - April 24

(Marco Bonelli) "What's next?"

Dow Jones down 100 and Nasdaq down another 1% - what's next?

Market rebound today on better earnings and a bounce from technical levels - what's next?

Short-term investor's sentiment is sort of cautious but that's how it's been for a few weeks now. Short-term commentaries appear to be neutral, simply asking the question "What's next?" instead of leaning to one side or the other. Then you have some of the prominent media outlets that play a more optimistic song with lyrics like "...stocks are down but off the lows..." or "...we haven't seen panic selling, it was a coordinated consolidation, which is a positive...". Finally the majority of market strategists also continues their bullish calls and recommends buying into each dip the market sees. So what's next?


First, a bunch of short-term bill auctions in Europe were successfully implemented; the majority of earnings this morning were reported better than expected; the Russell 2000 and Value Line Index defended their 100day MA, the BKX closed at/above its 50day MA and AAPL closed above its 50day MA and GOOG above its 200day MA - so the market has some good reason to rebound. Then you look at the muted reaction in the futures and the European markets and you wonder if maybe the NDX below its 50day MA (the index jumped above this average on January 3 with a gap-open and hasn't traded below since then!), the SOX below its 100day MA and the possibility of a head-and -shoulder formation in the Dow Jones, SPX and Value Line Index (interestingly, for the Dow Jones and VGY, it would be almost the same neckline as the bigger formation had last year!) might even lead to more losses.

Admittedly the current uncertainty is a bit numbing: AAPL reports after the close, the FOMC meets until tomorrow and a few macro-economic numbers coming up, on top of the uncertain global macro-economic and political environment doesn't really get anybody excited, which could certainly change: AAPL crushing numbers by a big margin once again, investors reluctantly embracing a positive earnings season and the Fed hinting towards QE3 amid weaker than expected economic numbers will most likely provide the catalyst to buy the dip...

Whether the market will get this catalyst remains to be seen - without it, investors will continue to ask, "What's next?" and probably get overwhelmed by the many deteriorating global trends. The next few hours will be a bit sluggish but by tomorrow afternoon, a lot of these short-term questions will be answered and we will know, what's next!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)



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