Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 26 aprile 2012

Market Comment - April 26

(Marco Bonelli) Catalyst or no catalyst?

Let's keep it short and simple! Q1 Earnings continue to mostly impress (for various reasons), macro-economic data continues to mostly disappoint (which raises the question how healthy the real outlook is) and the Fed first didn't know where the door was (by leaving the FOMC statement almost unchanged), then they closed the door for QE3 by issuing a more positive economic outlook but finally Ben Bernanke opened the door again for QE3 by saying that "balance-sheet tool remain on the table" and that the Fed "remains prepared to do more".


It looks like weak economic data, China and other global uncertainties is a bit too much on market participants' minds whose sentiment towards the market deteriorated considerably during the last days, which could have also contributed to the rebound yesterday - in other words a perfect combination of good news from the corporate front (earnings), short-covering, some money coming over from the fixed-income pool and the Dow Jones, SPX, Nasdaq and S&P 400 Midcap Index back above their 50day MA (only the Russell 2000 and the Value Line Index stay below).

Although this favorable combination looses the participation of the bond market that sharply rallied over night and this morning after another round of disappointing macro-economic news, cautious sentiment could still support the market on the short-term but it's important to keep in mind that as long as the fundamental picture changes, sentiment and liquidity usually only have a short-lived and limited effect. Relatively weak domestic data, various cautious comments from companies in regard of China's growth and substantially rising inventories across the board are only part of the story that doesn't suggest a rosy outcome if this trend continues.

A slightly lower Dollar (and the DXY at risk to break through support of the current triangle formation), slightly higher commodities and earnings as well as sentiment that still work as short-term catalyst for the stock market define the opening. Let's watch the continued battle for the 50day MA in general and the Nasdaq Composite and NDX that trade right at the short-term downtrend from beginning of April.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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