Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 3 aprile 2012

Market Comment - April 3

(Marco Bonelli) The phrase "The Calm before the Storm" usually is associated with a negative event coming up but in 2012 the market almost treats it as something positive while a growing number of market participants desperately waits for the (negative) storm to come.


More than 12% in the SPX and more than 21% performance in the NDX for the first quarter, rarely a down-day and if it happens, the "correction" is over within a day and a half and while the majority of economic data in March was reported below expectations, the handful of positive numbers got singled out as the indicator for a sustainable recovery going forward. Consumer spending and the service industry is expected to contribute to growth and earnings are estimated to grow 17.2% in Q4 this year. So the market seems to quietly wait for the pieces of good news come together, eagerly waiting to resume the steep and partly even parabolic rise of the rally.

At the same time a majority of investors seems to be on the sidelines (either still on the side-line from last year or once again on the sideline after reluctantly having participated sometime during the last few months). Given this short-term hesitance and the fact that insider selling is close to record high level, it's fair to ask who is actually buying. Professional traders and hedge-funds play the momentum; private investor's bullish sentiment is above historic average for the 14th consecutive week and something that cannot get under-estimated is share buy-backs. This combined with almost everyone (even those who are bearish) being scared of selling any position and running risk of missing out on another leg up in the rally creates the environment of the current calm.

Obviously the pieces for the positive storm get collected for more than three months and the next big pieces to add will be the labor reports for March from this week and the Q1 earnings season that starts next week, pieces that could be crucial for the overly optimistic picture, either it fits (which already gets anticipated) or some big pieces are missing. The "Calm" never last forever but the definition of "Storm" still needs more research.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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