Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

lunedì 14 maggio 2012

Market Comment - May 14

(Marco Bonelli) All of a sudden, the investment community realizes that banks' activities are not a lot different than they had been before the financial crisis hit (and that banks' balance sheets are as unfathomable as they were five years ago). All of a sudden, the investment community realizes that the world is facing serious oversupply in energy commodities (and in regard of other commodities like metals that demand is not as substantial as expected anymore). And all of a sudden, the investment community realizes that lowering the reserve ratio requirement for large Chinese banks by 50bp to 20% (the third reduction in six months) may have little to no effect as the second largest economy in the world has difficulty digesting the (partly fake) growth it experienced over years.

How does this sudden recognition of many fundamental differences (compared to certain existing beliefs so far) change the investment behavior?

Friday's market action might give some of the answer: The day started classically as the majority of market participants expected another weak day following the JPM's revelations; however, the fact that the description of the incident and the consequent discussion was probably a bit too dramatic, that many of the major averages traded at technical support levels and that May's better than expected preliminary Michigan Consumer Confidence led to a nice counter-rally  that (once again) ran out of steam two hours into the trading session. Lack of follow-through buying, uncertainties and fear pushed the market (once again) down to close at the lows of the day.

The Dow Jones closed below its 100day MA, as did the Dow Jones Transportation Index, Russell 2000 and Value Line Index, while the same level still held for the SPX, S&P 400 Mid-cap and both Nasdaq Indexes. Looking closer, the majority of cyclical and energy sector indexes already trade below their 100day and even 200day MAs, a number of sector indexes in the technology, financial and even consumer space do the same. The Value Line Index closed slight below the critical 350 level and will drop further in the opening. Finally, the CRB Index closed at the lowest level since October 2010 and crude and heating oil closed at a new yearly low.

With a very busy week for macro-economic releases, a dose of the Fed via the Minutes of the FOMC Meeting and bill and bond offerings from Spain, Italy, France and Greece, leading to the May option expiration on Friday, the investor community may possibly realize broader fundamental differences between the common beliefs and reality. Sooner or later, many sentiment and survey-based economic data will likely catch up.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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