Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

venerdì 25 maggio 2012

Market Comment - May 25

(Marco Bonelli) Welcome (back) to the time of total control!

With almost every official in Europe feeling the urge to express his/her opinion, statements, re-produced statements, twisted statements and no statements followed by rumors, sort-of rumors and false rumors fly around like there is no tomorrow and unfortunately determine the short-term market direction, which makes it a game totally out of control!


Discussions and comments about Euro-bonds, LTRO, "Greuro", "Grexit" etc. really make feel everybody confident and leave the impression that Europe's leaders are in total control.

"China's biggest banks may fall short of loan-targets" for the first time in at least seven years, three bank officials said. It looks like it takes a little bit more effort for the central-planning bureau to keep total control of the country's faltering economy.

Yield spreads tightening, yield spreads widening, US and German 10year yields at record lows, the Euro collapsing, stocks up on short-covering on Monday, the last 90 minutes on Wednesday and the last 45 minutes yesterday, no conviction, no follow-through buying, outflows from equity funds for 13 consecutive weeks and the question almost all investors ask whether they should or have to jump in and participate in order to not miss the moment when central banks once again open the liquidity flood gates.

As it apparently became a bit difficult to figure out any short-term market direction, maybe it's worth pointing out a few of the next milestones: ECB Meeting on June 6 and July 5 along with the next FOMC Meeting on June 20 might give a bit more clarity about the (official) thoughts and intentions of the two major central banks. Elections in Greece are scheduled for June 17, which means that the rumor mill will not stop for another three weeks. Finally Q2 corporate earnings will likely provide answers concerning the growth trend and stock market valuation in general. Until we reach any of these milestones the market will remain hard to predict and vulnerable to any rumors, positive and negative. With calls for central bank interventions increasing, even bad economic numbers tend to be seen as positive while positive numbers like the (highly suspicious) Michigan Consumer Confidence at level not seen since October 2007 may easily disappoint those who put their faith into the hands of central banks to control the markets.

All said, long-term players with an investment horizon of two years and longer may find recent developments highly interesting and probably find opportunities in sectors like energy, financials and technology to build positions.

Trade well and have a nice long weekend.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

1 commento:

  1. grazie di questi illuminanti commenti giornalieri che seguo sempre con molto interesse.
    complimenti
    marco

    RispondiElimina

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