Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

martedì 12 giugno 2012

Market Comment - June 12

(Marco Bonelli) Are stocks joining the funeral of the bond-camp?

"Risky" sovereign bonds in Europe almost instantly dropped yesterday morning and continue to slide today, while CDS are rising. The Euro and commodities joined that move and stocks learned the hard way in afternoon session yesterday and already gave up most of the opening gains. The only positive take-away is that markets obviously realized right away that the bail-out for Spain is nothing more than a short-term fix as the country will probably need to ask for a lot more money rather sooner than later.


With not too many meaningful macro-economic data to play with, another look at the technical picture could be interesting and shows further deterioration.

Some of the levels to watch this week are the 200day MA. All major averages broke below beginning of June but recovered above it since then. Yesterday's sell-off already brings the S&P 400 Mid-cap and the Russell 2000 below the relevant level, while the Value Line Index never managed to recover. In addition, the SPX and Nasdaq Composite showed their 50day MA crossing the 100day MA (sometimes referred to as the "death cross"), joining the same development the Dow Jones, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and VGY already showed a few days earlier.

Other levels to watch may be the highs from 2007. The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 trade below these levels that also got confirmed in 2011. Other indexes like the Dow Jones, SPX and Value Line Index developed long-term downtrends from the 2007 highs. The level to watch these days may be the 5-year downtrend in the SPX that currently runs at 1306. If the SPX breaks back into that downtrend, the 200day MA at 1290 is waiting right afterwards.

As more economic data releases is scheduled for the second half of the week with the quadruple witching on Friday as the icing on the cake, moves in the stock-market might be a mix of erratic moves, short-lived trends, intraday reversals and other inexplicable action, all in preparation for next week: Sunday's Greek election and Tuesday/Wednesday's FOMC meeting. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the week after the June expiration, the Dow Jones was down 12 years in a row, or down 19 of the last 21 years. Although statistics that refer to historic developments always have to be taken with a grain of salt, investors should at least keep it in mind as the upcoming events could easily decide about the next direction for stocks! With that, a cautious and defensive approach still makes a lot of sense!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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