Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 14 giugno 2012

Market Comment - June 14

(Marco Bonelli) Will the old (monetary policy) "tool" once again prevail against uncertainty, if it gets deployed at all?

Except the agonizing NOK story and a few reductions in a number of GDP growth estimates, all morning headlines spin around various developments in the PIIGS nations which is not surprising and with Greeks election only three days away, the rumor mill has been shifting gears each day so far this week. And even the increasing rate of absurdity of the nature of these rumors is not surprising as the election likely won't produce any clear results and the political landscape will remain scattered, an immediate exit from the Euro zone is highly unlikely and the road to stabilization (not talking improvement, yet), with or without re-negotiation of the rescue package remains a long, bumpy road - or to describe it in three word, uncertainty will stay. Even scarier, all developments point to Spain obviously following the same road.

All that probably explains best the 11.00am EST launch of a rally on Tuesday and the 10.00am EST rebound yesterday, with stocks, the Euro and commodities all holding hands, moving into the same direction, nervously trading around the levels the market closes on June 6th after the biggest one-day-rally of the year. At least the last trading sessions moved the major averages out of oversold territory, which could be seen as positive or negative...

The investment environment becomes increasingly difficult (that's a ground-breaking statement, I know!). With negative news all around and fundamental trends deteriorating, even negative sentiment is (almost useless) as a reason to step into the market no longer really counts. A lot of bullish market comments in the last weeks were built on the bearish sentiment among investors but those comments faded and got replaced by recommendations to wait or stay sidelines. That leaves liquidity as the last straw to save the stock market which raises the pressure on the Fed considerably in light of next week's FOMC meeting. But which kind of investment strategy is it when you are kind of forced and (almost unconditionally) rely on and hope for the next QE operation? It's a very risky strategy, especially when the fundamental base (or even potential) is missing.

Despite some attempts to identify certain sectors that show some stabilization (yesterday the energy sector was singled out as well as some industrial metals in the commodity space), it falls more into the make-believe camp than anything real so far. Ahead of the option expiration tomorrow, another round of economic data that could have the potential to add to the few disappointments this week (May retail sales and jobless claims), the uncertain outcome of the Greek election on Sunday and an uncertain outcome of the FOMC meeting next week,  a well educated investment decision unfortunately is not possible.

Having said that, one of the few things that continue to look interesting and really show some stabilization are precious metals, gold and palladium in particular (silver to lesser degree) and related securities.

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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