Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 27 giugno 2012

Market Comment - June 27

(Marco Bonelli) Rien ne va plus?

Obviously the upcoming European Summit and the ongoing development of the worsening crisis are pretty much dominating the stock markets around the world. As the Muppet Show ahead of the summit reaches new heights there is probably even something positive you could get out of it: Since the soap-opera entered the stage of accusing others, pointing fingers, threatening (...to resign...) and demonstrating power (...not in my life time...), the crisis could move closer to the point of serious escalation - in a positive or negative way: either Europe will seriously work towards a real comprehensive plan (that deserves the description master plan that really addresses the problems) soon or the situation will get out of hand soon as individual positions within Europe intensify and don't allow any solution in the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the disagreements ahead of the summit assign a fair probability to the latter outcome.


Investors got a mixed dose from the economic front which almost looks like positive news in the recent wave of disappointing data. Better New Home Sales from May (reported on Monday) got confirmed by comments from LEN this morning that reported better than expected earnings and sales as well as a decent increase in orders and backlogs: "Evidence from the field suggests...that we have commenced a slow and steady recovery process." Consumer Confidence for June disappointed and Durable Goods Orders for May were mixed and unfortunately didn't show a rebound from the last two or three disappointing reports.

For the major indexes, investors will keep an eye on the 200day MAs (the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Index trade right at it, the S&P 400 and Value Line Index still below); the 2861.50 level in the Nasdaq Composite also remains crucial as it represents the highs from 2007 and 2011, now again a resistance line.

Window dressing and a "risk-on" approach lifted the Dow Jones up a whopping 0.26% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.63% (does risk-on have to be redefined?). Window-dressing will remain an important driver this week. Although the odds for a positive bias may be a bit higher given that the major indexes barely trade in positive territory for the month (Dow Jones +1.14%, SPX +0.74% and Nasdaq Composite +0.95%), the fact that the performance for the quarter is solidly negative (Dow Jones -5.13%, SPX -6.28% and Nasdaq Composite -7.68%) in combination with a number of near-term headwinds could also define window-dressing as "dumping the losing positions before they lose more money". Anything's possible, welcome to the roulette!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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