Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 6 giugno 2012

Market Comment - June 6

(Marco Bonelli) Despite a "leak" that the Fed might commit to additional stimulus at the FOMC meeting in two weeks in order to avoid a timing conflict with the upcoming election and despite the start of a discussion whether the Fed should get more involved in the rescue mission for Europe, the quote of the day yesterday came from St. Louis' Fed President James Bullard (a non-voting member in 2012): While the US data has been mixed in recent weeks, "the outlook for 2012 has not changed significantly so far" and "The recent nonfarm payrolls report was disappointing, but not enough to substantially alter the contours of the U.S. outlook". Enough said!


The "real" highlight of the day was the SPX moving back to the 200day MA (currently at 1285.68) and both Nasdaq indexes trading back above the same marks, as financials and parts (internet stocks and AAPL didn't join the party) of the technology sector (both sectors dropped deep into the August/December-trading range from last year) staged a weak rebound on below average volume, driven by the hope that the world will soon see more stimulus from various central banks and the hope that technical levels like MAs or Fibonacci retracement levels (most major averages trade between the 38.2% and 50% retracement lines although the Value Line Index already broke through the 50% level last Friday) will hold and provide the base for a tradable rebound.

In the meantime the ISM non-manufacturing index broke the almost flawless streak of disappointing data (since beginning of last week, 20 out of 23 numbers were reported below expectations). A sharp drop in the prices paid, employment, new export orders and imports sub-components is noteworthy, which, at the same time shows how volatile and unreliable these data became as the composition changes every month, depending if the sun shines or if it's a rainy day at the time the survey is taken). Anyway, the 53.7 reading on a 53.4 estimate probably also contributed to the slightly positive tone in yesterday's session.

Instead of getting absorbed by the daily noise, most investors eagerly wait for any signs from the central banks. The ECB already disappointed a bit with non-action, although ECB President Mario Draghi said that "growth remains weak", that he sees "downside risks" and that they "watch data closely and stand ready to act". Next comes the Beige Book later this afternoon and the BoE meeting and Ben Bernanke's Testimony in front of Congress tomorrow.

Despite the fear-driven wait-and-see attitude of many investors, precious metals continue to work their way higher and the financial and technology sector may again contribute in this short-term trader rally that shouldn't get anybody too excited!

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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