Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

giovedì 2 agosto 2012

Market Comment - August 2

(Marco Bonelli) For how long will the markets be happy watching central banks only talking the talk and not walking it?

The Fed made little changes in the statement following the FOMC Meeting, acknowledged that economic activity "decelerated somewhat" but that monetary policy remains unchanged, leaving investors with the promise that the Committee will "closely monitor" further incoming information.


The ECB again displayed strong language that risk premiums "need to be addressed" and that high yields are "unacceptable" (...ever thought about why yields are high..., oh sorry, I forgot, these reckless speculators who drive rates higher, really need to be stopped...), suggested that they "may undertake outright open market operations" but added that the ECB will "design modalities" for such policy measures over coming weeks (...in other words, due to various resistances, their hands were tied and they couldn't do anything now...) and at the same time tried to toss the ball to the fiscal side (...governments must stand ready to activate EFSF, ...must restore sound fiscal positions..." or even better, "...further reforms needed...").

Of course nobody expected anything from the Fed (I repeat, NOBODY expected anything, right...?) and it's obvious that the Fed is "moving closer" to doing something. Consequently, media outlets pushed the great news with all force by saying that "Fed signals further steps to boost economy after first half growth slowed" (Bloomberg) or "Wary Fed is poised to act" (WSJ) and the market was happy. It's hard to argue that nobody expected anything from the ECB and it remains to be seen if the markets are happy waiting until September 6 (next ECB Meeting) and September 13 (next FOMC Meeting) having nothing else than promises.

What could be more interesting are small pieces of positive news from the consumer front: after better than expected Consumer Confidence data for July (only driven by a more optimistic outlook) and slightly less than expected weekly jobless claims (how much seasonal distractions from the automobile sector are still in the number?), strong retails same-store sales for July were reported across the board. This is a nice distraction after months of disappointing data but it's way too early to define it as a simple counter move in a downtrend or as the start of a turn-around. Tomorrow's labor report might deliver a preliminary verdict to that interpretation.

Still the headlines from central banks will dominate today's discussions as the day might turn out to be a day for picking up the pieces (all speculative positions in stocks, bonds, the Euro etc.) and digesting the news of non-action by central bankers while waiting for the "mother-of-all-economic-data" - the BLS report with non-farm payrolls from July. The events or non-events from the last two days in combination with the payroll data tomorrow clearly has the potential to push the market outside the +/- 5% comfort range.

Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento

Per commentare é necessario un indirizzo email "@gmail.com". Se non ce l'hai puoi farlo qui, oppure iscrivendoti al vlog. Altrimenti puoi usare una delle altre opzioni disponibili nel menù "Commenta come".